Will the Monarch (Danaus plexippus) become extinct in the current century?
Will the Monarch (Danaus plexippus) become extinct in the current century?
10
500Ṁ3562099
14%
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This market will resolve YES if the Monarch Butterfly is extinct in 2100. It will resolve NO if it is not extinct in 2100. Note: The market is about the Monarch Butterfly species, regardless of subspecies.
Wikipedia
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monarch_butterfly
IUCN red list of threatened species: Least Concern
https://www.iucnredlist.org/species/159971/219149911
Please help trading this market and posting news about the species in the comments, in order to get the most accurate assessment of its extinction risk.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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