Global CO2 Emissions in 2025

Question

This market predicts the total global CO2 emissions for 2025, including emissions from fossil fuels, industry and land-use changes. It will resolve based on the data presented in this graph from Our World in Data, rounded to one decimal place. The figures presented by Our World in Data are derived from the Global Carbon Budget dataset. Final data for 2025 are expected to be published in November 2026.

If necessary, I will add new answers to ensure there are always at least 10 answers above and below the one with the highest odds.

For comparison, the same market for the year after and the year before:

(https://manifold.markets/embed/EarthForecasts/global-co2-emissions-in-2026?play=true)(https://manifold.markets/embed/EarthForecasts/global-co2-emissions-in-2024?play=true)

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, 41.7 billion tonnes, followed by 41.8 billion tonnes and 41.6 billion tonnes are most likely. See the market for live updates (7 traders, as of Aug 12, 2026).