The main thrust of this question is whether or not you think that National-Act will have enough votes after the final results are declared on Nov 3 to form a government or whether they will require NZ First too.
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@JamesHammond https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/496990/coalitions-confidence-and-supply-what-you-need-to-know I guess I would resolve as a NO for confidence and supply. What do you think?
@ConorRenwick thanks for sharing - interesting to understand the nuance a little bit more. What was your intent when you setup the question?
My initial bet assumed any support in forming a government would constitute a YES on this question (without much thought TBH).
But reading the technicality in the article between coalition vs confidence and supply, I think confidence and supply for NZ First (or less likely ACT) would resolve NO.
Let us know what you think and I will act according to what your intent is.