Elon Musk promised them by "early Feb" on January 7.
Resolves YES if Twitter allows users to post tweets with more than 1400 characters at any time by the end of Tuesday, February 14, and NO otherwise. If any ambiguity arises, I'll use my best judgement.
General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.
Close date updated to 2023-02-08 6:35 pm
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Thanks for everyone’s opinions! It’s not totally unanimous, but most people have taken the side that Twitter Blue counts, especially because any Twitter user can get a paid subscription and post long-form tweets. Also, if the plan isn’t to roll out long-form tweets to unpaid users soon, it makes sense to resolve YES since the original context was seeing if Elon Musk’s timeline prediction was right.
Sorry for ambiguous resolution criteria! At least I have the italics paragraph now so you can’t be too mad if you disagree.
@Conflux (In addition to market comments, I created a poll on the Manifold discord where YES is currently beating Leave Open 10-2, if the comments don’t feel like a consensus to you.)
@MCMillennium Wow, resolution criteria failure on my part!
Do y’all think that only Twitter Blue subscribers counts as “users”? I’m going back and forth in my head.
@Conflux In absence of a qualifier like “at least some users”, I would interpret “users” to mean users generally, or essentially all users (ones that aren’t banned, etc.), not just one bucket of an AB test, for example, or as part of an extra paid service.
@Conflux I'd interpret it almost the opposite way; I would interpret 'users' as 'at least some users'.
@Conflux if you did not consider a partial rollout or gatekeeping when you made the post, and are now surprised by the question, it implies you were probably thinking of generic undifferentiated users.
@NcyRocks If someone told me “Twitter users can do X!”, I might respond, “Great! I’m a Twitter user, so I can do X, right?” If they then told me, “Oh, I meant at least some Twitter users”, I’d ask why they didn’t say that to begin with.
A question asking about a partial rollout would’ve sounded more like, “Will Twitter introduced a feature for posting longform tweets?”
@JimHays I would argue that this isn't a partial rollout though. Every user can access the feature they just have to pay for it, unlike an A/B test where some users have no way to access it.
Also, given the resolution criteria as written, I don't think it matters. "Resolves YES if Twitter allows users to post tweets with more than 1400 characters". There are users posting tweets with more than 1400 characters, so Twitter has obviously allowed them to do that. Even an A/B test or partial rollout would resolve this YES.
@evancotthem “Every user can access the feature they just have to pay for it” that’s a good point