Nate Silver, of FiveThirtyEight fame, just tweeted the following:

"How likely is a robust third party movement in America?

I don't know. I think empirically-minded folks are a little smug about it, but fairly low.

OTOH, how likely is it that some rich businessperson or celebrity could run for POTUS in 2024 and impact the race? Not so low IMO.

Apart from the fundamental unpopularity of the major political figures (Trump, Biden, Harris) these days, the fact that things look quite unsettled on the D side (prediction markets say >50% that neither Biden nor Harris is nominated!) could make the whole cycle a free-for-all.

To avoid vague verbiage, I'd define 'impact' as any of the following if you were setting up a prediction market."

This is said prediction market.

It will resolve YES if a rich businessperson or celebrity (I think it should be pretty clear who qualifies) runs for president in 2024 as the nominee of a minor party or as an independent, and meets any of Nate Silver's criteria (≥10% of the popular vote, win a state, poll at ≥15% for 30 days, get invited to a debate, get endorsed by 5 senators/governors, or be decisive in whether the Dem/Rep wins). It will resolve NO otherwise.