Will Sam Trabucco have another crossword in the New York Times by end of 2024?
12
90
210
2025
6%
chance

Sam Trabucco was the co-CEO of Alameda Research between Oct 2021 and Aug 2022 (only months before it imploded). He also created 26 NYT crosswords between Oct 2015 and May 2021.

Will he use his free(?) time to make some more crosswords? And would the NYT even publish them?

General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.

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predicts YES

What happens if we have a Duncan Dekker scenario though

@Marnix Hmm. I think if he publishes under a pseudonym (a puzzle from FTX collapse until 2024), that would count if it’s revealed to the public. I’ll resolve NO at end of 2024 if there’s no new puzzle believed to be by Trabucco, and re-resolve if it comes out that he wrote a previous one under a pseudonym.