My new favorite Manifold metaphor is thinking about betting here a bit like editing Wikipedia: anyone can create markets (articles) on any subject, even obscure ones that might not be in a traditional prediction market website (encyclopedia). And anyone can edit the prediction (article)!

I think considering betting like a Wikipedia editor is a nice mental framing. Makes it less about chasing random self-resolving profit opportunities, or focusing too much on discount rates, and more about finding the place where important Manifold markets seem inaccurate and fixing them. It's a public service!

Will Manifold use this metaphor? To count for this market, it can't just be in the comment section of this market. It must be in an official part of the website or documentation, in a quote to some media outlet, or similar. I may use some subjective judgement to determine what counts. Deadline is July 31 at 6pm PT. (I like being awake to resolve markets right when they close.)

General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.