On Pat's previous survey, I explicitly outed myself as Conflux. I can't remember if I did anything similar on Joseph's...
This market resolves as YES if, on their first attempt, @JosephNoonan is able to guess which response to their Manifold survey was submitted by me. Otherwise, it resolves as NO upon them making an incorrect guess or on October 21, 2023, whichever comes first.
@JosephNoonan can guess by taking a screenshot of one of the responses to their survey, posting it in the comments, and saying "This you?" or something similar.
Since Plasma won't be looking at any survey responses before October 7th, that's the soonest this market could resolve.
If @JosephNoonan outright refuses to guess for any reason, then this market resolves as NO early.
(Resolution criteria copied from @evergreenemily's linked market below)
General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ14 | |
| 2 | Ṁ13 | |
| 3 | Ṁ4 | |
| 4 | Ṁ3 | |
| 5 | Ṁ2 |
@Conflux That was just the thing I used as a unique identifier for your response in order to make my guess. I actually determined that this response was yours based on completely different factors, although seeing that answer confirmed that I was probably right.