Will I be accepted to these AI safety fellowship programs for Winter 2026?

1kṀ615

Nov 29

39%

MARS

26%

MATS

20%

Constellation Astra

37%

ERA

37%

FIG

About me:

Stanford sophomore, studying Symbolic Systems / Math / random rabbitholes
Volunteered at The Curve, ILIAD, and other conferences — have met some people in the field
Haven't really done any prior research in AI ... worried about this :(

Feel free to ask questions or give recommendations!

If I don't apply to any of these programs, I will resolve to my best-guess probability of what my chances would have been.

I will not bet unless probabilities seem extremely wrong.

General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.

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I just took the CodeSignal test for MATS. I coded almost everything! 925 / 1000 points in 90 minutes. I don't know if that's "good" or not; I could imagine a hardcore CS person acing the whole thing in 30 mins. But I do think timed tests are a comparative advantage of mine?

I officially applied to MARS and MATS! For MATS, I applied to the Megastream and the AI Futures Project (listing my Manifold expertise lol)

My current mood is pessimistic / underqualified. If you think that is impostor syndrome feel free to bet YES…

Would you please tag this "Will I" or "Personal Question

"If I don't apply to any of these programs, I will resolve to my best-guess probability of what my chances would have been"

Can you indicate which programs you actually intend on applying for? I don't want to bet on what you think the probability would have been.

@StephenFowler28ac I think my chance of applying to each individual program is >50%. I have spent a bit more time thinking about MARS and MATS, so maybe those are your best ones to bet on?