My dad works for the US gov (USPS) and he says the guys there are signaling a government shutdown is coming. All the maintenance is being pushed ahead right now and they've been talking about it, so it is a strong yes. (on "Will there be a US government shutdown before the end of 2023?")
My dad works for the US gov and he says there have been rumblings around the facility that Mike Johnson will get the votes needed to become the next Speaker of the House. (on "Who will be the next Speaker of the US House of Representatives?")
My dad has a government job and he said the guys there have been saying that the Kansas City Chiefs are the new America's team, so there is no doubt they will win. (on "Will the Philadelphia Eagles swoop the Kansas City Chiefs? π MNF")
soooo I hear that his dad works a government job (USPS), and the guys over there seem to know a lot about future events. (highly recommend reading scrolling through https://manifold.markets/FredBush?tab=comments)
this market resolves based on comments (or lack thereof) from @FredBush. the deadline for such comments is in one week, at 6pm PT on Nov 20
General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.
1,000π Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | αΉ55 | |
| 2 | αΉ41 | |
| 3 | αΉ39 | |
| 4 | αΉ37 | |
| 5 | αΉ27 |
Wait, so if Fred comes in at the last moment, and says his dad told him this will resolve YES, then how would this resolve? If this resolves YES, then Fred's dad actually had insight, and if this resolves NO, then Fred's dad didn't have any insights. Thankfully this market is run by @Conflux, an expert in such paradoxes
@Shump Iβm not sure what the paradox is. In your scenario it would resolve YES, because Fredβs dad actually had insight
@Shump If Fredβs dad says it should resolve NO, then it resolves YES, because Fredβs dad had insight
@Conflux It doesnβt matter for the resolution of this market what insight Fredβs dad apparently has, just the existence or nonexistence of the insight
Certainly @FredBush's well-connected dad will have information regarding this important policy issue