Resolves YES if Ron DeSantis publicly endorses Nikki Haley in the 2024 presidential election while the embedded market gives him a lower than 95% chance to be the nominee. Resolves NO when Haley is not running anymore or is considered the presumptive nominee by media and the embedded market probability goes above 98.5% or below 1.5% for at least 12 hours.
See also the inverse question:
General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.
Related questions
🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ114 | |
| 2 | Ṁ97 | |
| 3 | Ṁ92 | |
| 4 | Ṁ70 | |
| 5 | Ṁ35 |
Hmm, I guess according to my resolution criteria we have to wait to see if DeSantis switches his endorsement from Trump to Haley. I suppose in the longshot scenario that Haley starts really doing well, it could happen. Or if Trump dies or whatever.
Although if Trump dies, probably DeSantis would unsuspend? They can do that, right?