Who will be elected US Senator from California in 2024 for Dianne Feinstein’s (now Laphonza Butler’s) seat?
➕
Plus
29
Ṁ10k
resolved Nov 7
100%98%
Adam Schiff
0.8%
Katie Porter
0.2%
Barbara Lee
0.1%
Lateefah Simon
0.1%
Shirley Weber
0.2%
Laphonza Butler
0.4%
Steve Garvey
0.4%Other

Resolves when the race is projected by a major news network or Dave Wasserman. Re-resolves if this projection is incorrect.

General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00
Sort by:

I guess the calculus here is that Porter is about 50% likely to make the general (while Schiff almost certainly will), and she's about 40% likely to win that against Schiff if she qualifies, which seems about right to me. (On the other hand, if Garvey qualifies instead of Porter, Schiff will easily win.)

@robm just for context, the Porter and Schiff campaigns are both sending emails saying he's a big deal. BS for fundraising, I'm sure, but I'd like to see if he's a 0.2% deal, or a 2% deal.

https://politicalemails.org/messages/1286350

https://politicalemails.org/messages/1286456

@robm Done. I also changed the settings so anyone can add answers

Please add Lateefah Simon and Shirley Weber

I love the use of Dave Wasserman as a resolution criteria.

@Joshua I’ve still never seen an example of Dave Wasserman having seen enough and being wrong! Something I can’t say about the networks :)

Same!

© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules