You are encouraged to add the names of representatives!

Freedom Caucus members have threatened to primary representatives who didn't vote for Jordan, but there are other reasons you could imagine a Republican rep would lose their primary.

To resolve YES, the following must be true:

• The representative runs for reelection and loses their Republican primary

• A central campaign issue is a vote or other position of the representative relating to who they supported in the current Speaker election (the one to replace McCarthy)

• It seems clear that they'd have been renominated if not for the Speaker issue

If the first two are true but the second is in doubt, I may resolve to a percentage based on how likely it is that they'd have been renominated if not for the Speaker issue. For simplicity, this percentage will be rounded to either NO, 25%, 50%, or 75%.

Since this market is fairly subjective, I won't bet. [Edit: Oops, I forgot not to bet - more reason that Manifold should start enforcing this. I sold my positions; I won't bet in the future, and I'm happy to compensate anyone who feels wronged.]

General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.