Which Republicans will lose their 2024 primary as a result of their Speaker vote?
9
76
325
Jun 1
58%
Mariannette Miller-Meeks
41%
Michael Simpson
22%
Kay Granger
14%
Don Bacon
8%
Ken Buck

You are encouraged to add the names of representatives!

Freedom Caucus members have threatened to primary representatives who didn't vote for Jordan, but there are other reasons you could imagine a Republican rep would lose their primary.

To resolve YES, the following must be true:

  • The representative runs for reelection and loses their Republican primary

  • A central campaign issue is a vote or other position of the representative relating to who they supported in the current Speaker election (the one to replace McCarthy)

  • It seems clear that they'd have been renominated if not for the Speaker issue

If the first two are true but the second is in doubt, I may resolve to a percentage based on how likely it is that they'd have been renominated if not for the Speaker issue. For simplicity, this percentage will be rounded to either NO, 25%, 50%, or 75%.

Since this market is fairly subjective, I won't bet. [Edit: Oops, I forgot not to bet - more reason that Manifold should start enforcing this. I sold my positions; I won't bet in the future, and I'm happy to compensate anyone who feels wronged.]

General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.

Get Ṁ600 play money

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