Here's a form of continuation of Conflux's market for those interested in the project.

Well, it does exist, and it does seem to have markets which enable betting. Basically a much less functional version of Manifold with much worse web design. I'm trying to resolve my Brier-Fox-Forecasting market from January on whether I'd place at least 20 bets to NO, but the UI is not giving me confirmation that this operation has succeeded.

The creators have mentioned that they're not focusing on this project right now, so I guess it makes sense that I've felt no urge to use this website since testing it out two months ago. I don't really know what the advantage of BFF over Manifold is even supposed to be. I'll give it 10% based on vibes since it technically does things, but it pales in comparison to Manifold (just as Crystal Ballin' pales in comparison to the mighty Market Manipulation Podcast).

Sorry for slightly delayed resolution!

@Conflux I pushed an update which broke the betting system but haven't been quick to fix it because I've been working on improving the UI. Coming out with a version 0.0.3 in a couple months which will allow selling and have a much better UI.

Different question on a similar topic, as it's about the software underlying BrierFox. This might be viewed as a more publicly verifiable measure of quality. https://manifold.markets/jack/will-socialpredict-be-run-by-two-pu

This is an interesting market structure. From the outside view, we should expect a 50/50 chance it's better than Manifold, meaning this market is cutting off half the probability space and condensing it all into 100%. So being at 30% is really closer to 15% of how people are probably intuitively thinking about it.

@IsaacKing idk I just felt like the chance it was better than manifold was very small due to the vast amount of work put into manifold and manifold’s existing success

How does this resolve if BTE simply git clones Manifold and hosts it on his own site?

@WilliamEhlhardt Network effects are pretty important for a site like this. If the clone has no users, that doesn’t seem worthwhile to me. Are you asking about a scenario where BTE does the above, and also gets people to start using it?

@WilliamEhlhardt I would offer that's not sufficient to make a, "good," competitor as the competitor doesn't actually own or produce any source code. Manifold could hypothetically just shut down its open source policies and not provide any continual releases forcing competitors to inevitably stagnate. There needs to be some sort of independent unique offering.

@JimHays I am not building a clone of manifold.

@JimHays I guess I'm wondering what the floor on this market is, if he simply clones the site. So assume it gets no users but is feature-for-feature identical because it's using the same code - how would it resolve then? And presumably it resolves higher if there are users.

@WilliamEhlhardt See my comment here for clarity on my plan. https://manifold.markets/BTE/will-i-be-part-of-a-team-that-launc#1GfE2b5Cg7nbwJ46onJz

Will I be part of a team that launches a competitor to Manifold by the end of 2023?

74% chance. 1. There is a publicly-accessible website 2. Which I had/have a hand in creating/running 3. Where anyone with an invitation can sign up for an account 4. And, having signed up, can create something-analogous-to-Manifold-questions 5. And make predictions on "questions" they or others create 6. Such that correct and incorrect predictions have some lasting impact on something in their account similar to Manifold's mana balance (e.g. a balance, reputation tracker, etc).

@WilliamEhlhardt idk. I still haven’t figured out exactly how I’m gonna resolve this. What do you think would be fair?

@Conflux Hmm, not sure what criteria to use in general! I think if it were me, the exact scenario I outlined would resolve at 5% if it didn't have any users, and 50% if its daily active users were exactly Manifold's, and linearly interpolate between those on user count? Dunno what to do if there are MORE users.

@WilliamEhlhardt Why 50% instead of 100% if the user count was identical?

@Conflux Whoops, I misread your criteria. Uh, yeah, 100% would make more sense in that case.

How does this resolve if it doesn't launch?

How does this resolve if you think that it's a useful product for other people, but not one that you personally want to use?

@IsaacKing

NO = nonexistent or worthless.

For the other question, I'm not sure. I think my decision won't be purely selfish, so if others feel it's a useful tool, that would influence my choice

https://manifold.markets/PatrickDelaney/if-you-had-to-pick-what-criterium-w

If You Had to Pick, What Criterium Would Most Likely Make a Prediction Markets Platform, "Better" Than Manifold.Markets?

Re, this market: https://manifold.markets/Conflux/what-as-good-as-manifold-will-btes [link preview]Other related polls which may or may not be relevant to deciding criterium above: [markets]