MANIFOLD
How many ballots will it take to elect the next Speaker of the House? (LOG SCALE)
16
αΉ€530αΉ€1.2k
resolved Jan 7
Resolved
15

A log scale means that, for example, the distance between 1 and 10 is the same as the distance between 10 and 100.

This is actually my first numeric market! We'll see how it goes.

Resolves to the number of ballots in the 2023 Speaker of the House election. If it somehow exceeds 316, the top-end of this market, then I will resolve 316. (316 is approximately 10^2.5, equidistant between 100 and 1000 on a log scale.) I will extend market close as needed.

General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.

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Exactly 15. Please resolve (YES)

Linear scale version by @LarsDoucet

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