This market resolves to YES if, at any point during Donald Trump's second term as President of the United States (scheduled to end on January 20, 2029), the U.S. government approves, executes, or officially authorizes the sale or military transfer of defense articles or defense services (such as weapons, munitions, or military hardware) to the government of Russia or Russian state entities. Authorized third-party transfers of U.S.-origin defense articles to Russia will also count toward a YES resolution.

If no authorized arms sales or transfers to Russia occur before the end of Trump's second term, the market resolves to NO.