Background

Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis (ALS) occurs in two forms: familial (inherited) and sporadic. While familial ALS has known genetic causes, sporadic ALS (which accounts for 90-95% of cases) has no clearly identified cause. Scientists have investigated various environmental factors including exposure to heavy metals, solvents, radiation, agricultural chemicals, and military service, but no definitive environmental trigger has been established.

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve YES if by January 1, 2027:

• A peer-reviewed scientific study identifies a specific environmental factor as a key contributor to sporadic ALS

• The finding is published in a reputable scientific journal

• The scientific community broadly accepts the finding as significant (e.g., through confirmatory studies or official recognition by major ALS research organizations)

The market will resolve NO if:

• No environmental factor is identified as a key contributor by January 1, 2027

• Studies only show weak or inconclusive associations

• Findings are published but not widely accepted by the scientific community

Considerations

• Major breakthroughs in understanding disease causes often take decades of research

• The complexity of ALS and likely multifactorial nature of its causes make it challenging to isolate a single environmental contributor

• Recent advances in research methods and technology could accelerate discovery

• The term "key contributor" implies the factor must have a substantial and well-documented impact on ALS development, not just a minor association