Will it replicate, fail to replicate or be retracted by market close (March 2026)?

Replication: Main claim substantially reproduced and published by a different, independant lab, as perceived by a person skilled in the art. Will only count non-predatory journals of decent reputation (not necessarily top tier).

Failure to replicate: According to the same criteria, a publication reporting on a failed attempt to replicate. I will perform a citation search from the article under examination.

No replication attempt published: Failure to find either of the two previous outcome by market close.

Retraction: Official retraction of the paper by the editor, or notice of concerns regarding the main claim(s) of the paper.

Controversial resolution: Bet YES here for insurance against incompetence, failure of literature search, or against ambiguous findings. Resolves Yes or No according to Manifold Poll conducted after market close, running for 1 week and linked in the comment, asking whether the resolution for the other item is controversial.

Publication:

dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.cell.2017.09.027

Pubpeer:

https://pubpeer.com/publications/E61AC72AE0402C6A62A84E36ED2AEA#

In case of ambiguity, I might discuss in the comment, halt trading temporarily, or even resolve N/A. Welcoming comments and suggestions regarding resolution criteria, when formulated well in advance of the resolving event. There is an element of subjective judgment, and resolution risk in this market: you can minimize it by sharing your findings in the comments (in particular links to possible replicating studies) , but ultimately you unfortunately do have to trust my judgment somewhat. Note: There will be no early resolution of any options.