Will it be effectively impossible to tell a human and a high quality AI apart on social media before 2026?
➕
Plus
29
Ṁ1027
2025
89%
chance

Resolves based on existence of AI bots indistinguishable from normal users in normal usage on social media

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00
Sort by:
predicts YES

and next up to cause more confusion for the everyday user

Aren’t there a couple of questions that will reveal any bot? Like the copyright notice chatGPT gives at the moment, or questions about its infancy?

predicts YES

Somewhat related market:

It’s impossible to do this now, stuff like botometer is highly controversial.

How do you plan to resolve this? It seems that actors capable of training state of the art models are being very careful to make the AI identify themselves as AIs, at least for their public facing models. Any large scale injection of AI comments on social media would likely be a covert operation.

predicts YES

@mariopasquato based on the best determination I'm able to make at the time, I was thinking only about models available to the public, do you have any suggestions on how to improve the description?

Any human or just the most bot-like humans?

predicts YES

@Fion a human one would want to interact with, in other words if it becomes impossible to safely disregard bot comments based on available information.

Just based on their comments, or also looking at their profile and other info?

predicts YES

@NathanScott readily available information, so comment history, consistency, profile yes, background checks and data brokers no.

© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules