Will any country at least partially ban alcohol before 2045 for non-religious reasons?
Basic
4
Ṁ69
2044
54%
chance

The ban needs to be enacted legislatively after market creation.

What counts:

  • ban on distilled spirits only

  • ban for people born after a given date (simmilar to NZ tobacco ban)

  • extremely restrictive personal quotas (<20% average consumption prior to enactment)

What does not:

  • increasing drinking age

  • restricting sales to a small number of outlets

  • supreme court decision finding the sale of alcohol unconstitutional

  • anything a country with a theologically driven legislature does

  • an attempted ban that gets legally overturned before coming into effect

All timeframes:
/CodeandSolder/will-any-country-at-least-partially-5fcd89487eee
/CodeandSolder/will-any-country-at-least-partially
/CodeandSolder/will-any-country-at-least-partially-db5c43829921
/CodeandSolder/will-any-country-at-least-partially-b2acab53e843
/CodeandSolder/will-any-country-at-least-partially-f942c2f9a355
/CodeandSolder/will-any-country-at-least-partially-d31c8d2e6e56

See also:

/CodeandSolder/will-any-country-legalize-recreatio

/CodeandSolder/will-any-country-legalize-recreatio-1a525266f522

(and other timeframes)

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Presumably this is excluding counties that have already done so?

What if a country that already bans alcohol splits into two countries?

@Fion oops, I might have forgotten about the religion motivated bans when writing this question

@CodeandSolder Ah, ok, I think I understand your intent now.

What about if a Muslim-majority country that doesn't currently ban alcohol imposes an alcohol ban, doesn't say it's for religious reasons, but everybody thinks it was largely for religious reasons? Is it a case of "market creator's judgement" or "official wording of the ban"?

@Fion my intent is somewhere around "the legality of alcohol is clearly inconsistent with policy patterns and while it seems commonly accepted changing it is a bad idea the events around tobacco show legislatures to be more courageous than expected"

Market creator's judgement, with a significant majority unlikely to count.

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