Will at least one OpenAI employee say this week that they have seen Sam Altman in the office doing things?
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620
517
resolved Dec 4
Resolved
NO

Resolves if at my sole discretion I'm convinced that starting now, some OpenAI employee says they personally saw Sam Altman back in the office doing things. We've already established elsewhere that I have limited visibility into who works at Open AI, or who knows someone who works at OpenAI, versus internet randos.

The saying has to happen early enough so I can reasonably be convinced by 11:59 pm November 30. Any outstanding discussion as of market close I will entertain through the weekend, but I plan to resolve by early Monday morning Dec 4 Pacific if not sooner.

Last call. Resolving this market within 12 hours. If you have a YES position open I encourage you to bring it, and bring it soon.

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Evidently the first rule of Sam Is Back is you do not talk about Sam Is Back.

Where we stand: Good evidence OpenAI has a physical office, based on a user helpfully posted a pic from "Nitter" whatever that may be, and Google Maps returned a result that does not also have UPS store same address.

Also: the various "Is Sam bsck' markets have resolved to YES. I agree.

These are generous indicators that not only does OpenAI have an office Sam could appear in if not otherwise occupied, not only is Sam again head of OpenAI, BUT! ALSO! Sam may have set foot in this office, done things (must be more than autonomic functions) and been observed by an OpenAI employee.

Is this so high a bar to get over? Do you have more to offer? Resolution Monday am Pacific.

predicted YES

@ClubmasterTransparent Yeah I’m guessing plenty of people have seen him, but it sounds like a bunch of work to find one out randomly on twitter or other. I could be wrong

@TheBayesian possibly there is not much overlap between people who have seen Sam in the past week and people who care about this market. Can't say I'm shocked.

Market closed. No one has come forward with much yet. If you have something this is no time to be bashful.

It is OK if what you want to share is inconclusive but entertaining.

predicted YES

Do you mind waiting before a resolution, once the market closes? I suspect finding an employee that happens to mention him being in the office might take more than a day, despite it in fact happening

@TheBayesian I won't resolve before Monday morning. I reserve the right to close it then if adjudicating is straining my bandwidth to an extent that's detrimental to my health, work, other commitments etc. But if there's reasonable discussion going on at that time I'll consider it.

No secret the market has become volatile.

I don't intend to be obstinate, but I also don't intend to get jawbonef at the last minute with "Everybody knows user X is Sam's right hand person and they told me they saw him in the office on Tuesday doing things," Anyone who is betting on a big reveal will want to take that into account.

bought Ṁ45 of YES

@BruhMoment1d78 Thanks for sharing this, but he didn't have to be in the office to write a blog post. I have no reason to think he does most or any of his work from an office at all. I am not convinced yet. We are waiting for someone who works at OpenAI to say they have seen him in the office. And plus that, doing things. Comatose, dead or cardboard cutout does not count.

predicted YES

@ClubmasterTransparent Yep, sorry didn't mean to imply you should resolve, just that it would be more probable for him to be in the office.

@BruhMoment1d78 Agree. Of course Sam being in the office not 100% correlated with OpenAI employee -- not a window-washer or delivery person -- saying they saw him there. Doing things. But not totally unrelated either!

sold Ṁ46 of YES

@BruhMoment1d78 If we ever hear anything from an OpenAI employee on this subject, we can revisit this issue of if OpenAI does have an office, is Sam ever seen there.

@BruhMoment1d78 Oh and don't forget, he has to be doing things. Not just standing there. Doing things!

includes proof (photo/tweet) from Sam? or needs to be a third party?

@shankypanky You have all the information you need. Thank you for your interest.

@shankypanky I'll refine that. You have available to you all the information you need but since you asked I'll point you to the related market where the question came up. https://manifold.markets/ClubmasterTransparent/will-sam-altman-return-to-openai-th?r=Q2x1Ym1hc3RlclRyYW5zcGFyZW50

@ClubmasterTransparent it's a pretty unambiguous and easy to answer question I'm not sure why these are the responses instead of just a direct and to-the-point clarification but I'll skip participating, no worries.

@shankypanky Your question is fine. This market was made using question asked here was asked me in my other Sam Altman market. I want to see how traders would respond to it. Just by asking you've helped me. Perhaps my thesis is the question was dumb, or confusing. Perhaps I want to understand better what's going on in my other market. Perhapz the question ruffled my feathers and I'm gauging whether my response was proportionate. Perhaps I'm testing something about the "Sam Altman Effect." Unlikely though THAT is. I invite you to trade in my other market -- that one I put some thought into setting up.

bought Ṁ35 of YES

This week is 7 days from market start, closing date? Not before EOD Sunday?

@HenriThunberg I chose default option "Resolves In 1 week." About an hour ago.

NVM I see a few got added automatically. Thanks Manifold!

I accidentally posted this with no tags. Anyone know how to add them now?