Resolution criteria

The market resolves YES if the United States has military forces physically present on Venezuelan territory on January 6, 2026. This includes ground troops, special operations forces, or any armed military personnel deployed within Venezuela's borders. Military forces stationed outside the country (such as naval assets in the Caribbean) do not count. Resolution will be determined by official statements from the U.S. Department of Defense, State Department, or credible reporting from major news outlets documenting the presence of U.S. military personnel on Venezuelan soil.

Background

On January 3, 2026, the United States conducted a military operation that captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, involving over 150 aircraft that bombed infrastructure across northern Venezuela. The Venezuelan government remained in place with Vice President Delcy Rodríguez sworn in as President on January 5, 2026. The Pentagon reported approximately 15,000 troops in the Caribbean region prior to Maduro's capture. Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated the Trump administration will not rule out U.S. military presence in Venezuela in the future.

Considerations

Trump stated "We're not afraid of boots on the ground" and committed to ensuring Venezuela is "run properly," but the United States has not assembled a large-scale ground force to actually occupy the country. The distinction between offshore military presence and on-the-ground deployment is critical for this market's resolution.