Will Tesla Vehicle production Q1 2024 exceed 500,000?
21
370Ṁ13k
resolved Apr 2
Resolved
NO

Figures usually announced by Tesla shortly after quarter ends

last six quarters:

Q3 2022 https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-vehicle-production-deliveries-and-date-financial-results-webcast-third-quarter 365923

Q4 2022 https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-vehicle-production-deliveries-and-date-financial-results-webcast-fourth-quarter 439701

Q1 2023 https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-vehicle-production-deliveries-and-date-financial-results-webcast-first-quarter-2023 440808

Q2 2023 https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-vehicle-production-deliveries-and-date-financial-results-webcast-second-quarter-2023 479700

Q3 2023 https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-vehicle-production-deliveries-and-date-financial-results-webcast-third-quarter-2023 430488

Q4 2023 https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-vehicle-production-deliveries-and-date-financial-results-webcast-fourth-quarter-2023 494,989


The equivalent press release for Q1 2024 will be used but if not available may wait for financial reports. If Semi or Cybertruck numbers are included in the announcement they will be included in the relevant number but if not shown will not be included.


Background (Was getting too long so shorter form points):


Texas and Berlin factories still ramping up 3/Y production
Cybertruck production started at Texas
Price cuts during 2023. To stimulate demand presumably.
The latest official guidance which they reached just was:

"For 2023, we expect to remain ahead of the long-term 50% CAGR with around 1.8 million vehicles for the year."
Some Q3 production shutdowns were mentioned at Q2 earnings call and did happen but was there also throttling of production rate?

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Q2 market

__________ Production __ Deliveries

Model 3/Y __ 412,376 __ 369,783

Other Models 20,995 ____ 17,027
Total_________433,371____386,810

 https://ir.tesla.com/tesla-vehicle-production-deliveries-and-date-financial-results-webcast-first-quarter-2024

480k and 490k thresholds at:

Latest volume outlook:
"Our company is currently between two major growth waves: the first one began with the global expansion of the Model 3/Y platform and the next one we believe will be initiated by the global expansion of the next-generation vehicle platform. In 2024, our vehicle volume growth rate may be notably lower than the growth rate achieved in 2023, as our teams work on the launch of the next-generation vehicle at Gigafactory Texas. In 2024, the growth rate of deployments and revenue in our Energy Storage business should outpace the Automotive business."

Deliveries for Q1 at

Probably NO, but seems pretty close. Not sure if the probability is lower than 35%. 🤷

@GabeGarboden even though i sold all my YES, the production resumes hopefully on Feb 12(Tesla puts German factory production on hold as Red Sea attacks disrupt supply chains | AP News).

And estimating from its production rate that is 31.25k cars, which shouldn't be a lot to be accounted for growth in other areas.

@GabeGarboden Production effect has been estimated at about 9000. It may be unlikely but not so sure about the 'very' in very unlikely.

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