Will Tesla Vehicle deliveries Q1 2024 exceed 500,000?
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resolved Apr 2
Resolved
NO

Figures usually announced by Tesla shortly after quarter ends

Last six quarters:

Q3 2022 https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-vehicle-production-deliveries-and-date-financial-results-webcast-third-quarter 343820

Q4 2022 https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-vehicle-production-deliveries-and-date-financial-results-webcast-fourth-quarter 405278

Q1 2023 https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-vehicle-production-deliveries-and-date-financial-results-webcast-first-quarter-2023 422875

Q2 2023 https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-vehicle-production-deliveries-and-date-financial-results-webcast-second-quarter-2023 466140

Q3 2023 https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-vehicle-production-deliveries-and-date-financial-results-webcast-third-quarter-2023 435059

Q4 2023 https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-vehicle-production-deliveries-and-date-financial-results-webcast-fourth-quarter-2023 484507

The equivalent press release for Q1 2024 will be used but if not available, I may wait for Q1 financial reports. If Semi or Cybertruck numbers are included in the announcement they will be included in the relevant number but if not shown will not be included.

Background (Was getting too long so shorter form points):


Texas and Berlin factories still ramping up 3/Y production
Cybertruck production started at Texas
Price cuts during 2023. To stimulate demand presumably.
The latest official guidance which they reached just was:

"For 2023, we expect to remain ahead of the long-term 50% CAGR with around 1.8 million vehicles for the year."
Some Q3 production shutdowns were mentioned at Q2 earnings call and did happen but was there also throttling of production rate?

There is a Berlin shutdown due to parts unable to cross Red Sea which has been estimated to reduce production by ~9000 but may be able to cover some of this with reducing inventory of finished cars?


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Q2 market

__________ Production __ Deliveries

Model 3/Y __ 412,376 __ 369,783

Other Models 20,995 ____ 17,027
Total_________433,371____386,810

 https://ir.tesla.com/tesla-vehicle-production-deliveries-and-date-financial-results-webcast-first-quarter-2024

480k and 490k thresholds at:

bought Ṁ6 of NO

Latest volume outlook:
"Our company is currently between two major growth waves: the first one began with the global expansion of the Model 3/Y platform and the next one we believe will be initiated by the global expansion of the next-generation vehicle platform. In 2024, our vehicle volume growth rate may be notably lower than the growth rate achieved in 2023, as our teams work on the launch of the next-generation vehicle at Gigafactory Texas. In 2024, the growth rate of deployments and revenue in our Energy Storage business should outpace the Automotive business."

bought Ṁ6 of NO

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