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November market

https://manifold.markets/ChristopherRandles/resolve-increases-20-for-each-space

Resolve % increases 20% for each SpaceX launch over 5 in November 2023

58% chance. So 5 or less launches in November 2023 and this question resolves at 0% if 6 launches in November 2023 then resolves at 20% if 7 launches in November 2023 then resolves at 40% ... if 10 or more launches in November 2023 then resolves at 100% Holding a no position will pay the complement so if there are 8 launches pays 60% of yes position to yes position holders then no position holders will receive 40% of their no position for that holding. Launch counts if it actually takes-off in tact as intended and is intended to be orbital or very close to that. Orbital can be as short as 1 complete orbit. Very close to orbital requires intending final stage to travel at least 50% of way around Earth and either maximum altitude over 150 km or having altitude and speed energy sufficient for a 100km or more altitude circular orbit. Numbers for calendar months this year are January 2023 7 February 2023 6 March 2023 8 April 2023 7 (including one starship launch) May 2023 9 June 2023 7 July 2023 8 August 2023 8 September 2023 10 October 2023 9 Uses UTC times. I will extend closing time if the final answer will not be clear.

9 launches done, no real scope for any more so almost certainly will resolve at 80%.

Will probably resolve this a little early unless any objections.

8 launched, 1 aborted - possible 24 hour recycle mentioned on live stream, but far from clear it will be in October now.

Re Starship

After all the full stack testing was completed, SpaceX destacked Ship 25 on Oct. 26 – followed by the removal of the Hot Staging Ring the following day.

With this destack Ship 25 ties Ship 24 for most stacks and restacks. However, for Ship 25, this should be the final time until regulatory approval and the arming of the Flight Termination System (FTS).

https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2023/10/spacex-full-stack-starbase-change/

Hot staging ring is back on, but launch not going to happen in October now.

So if there are 9 launches in October, this would pay out 80%, yes?

@TrickyDuck correct.

We appear to be at 7 launched 2 planned.

Seems like no others likely to be planned or have time to launch in October but planned launches can and do get delayed for various reasons.

When I say correct to "pay out" I mean the claim would resolve at 80% if there were 9 launches.

@ChristopherRandles 80% means 80% of what I bet, correct?

@TrickyDuck If you bet at current average 83% so 166 mana to get a 200 yes position then the resolution gives 80% of the 200 mana position i.e 160 mana.

So it is 80% of position not of mana bet.

Betting yes at above 80% makes sense if you think there will be more than 9 launches. Personally I think a delay to one of the planned launches is more likely than there being an extra launch but opinions can vary.

@ChristopherRandles That could have been more clearly explained upfront. The prediction is “more than 5 launches,” so explicitly saying 5 launches gets zero percent tells me my overall rate of return is zero (because that is by definition a losing position). Logically, if I lost everything at five launches, then six launches earning 20 percent suggests I should earn 20 percent of what I bet.

I am new to the market, and this is the first prediction I’ve seen that works like this. If I stay the course I can generally break even, I think. No reward for an above average month for SpaceX.

@TrickyDuck You can take either side of the bet. In general, a share in the market costs somewhere between 0 and 1, and resolves at somewhere between 0 and 1 (inclusive). If you bet YES, and it resolves at more than you paid, you'll make money. It you bet the NO side, and the market resolves at less than the price you paid, you'll make money.

So currently the market is trading at 83%. Which, for this market, means something like "Probably 9 launches, small chance of 10+". If you think they won't make it to 9, you'd bet the NO side. For 20 mana you'd get 97 shares, pushing the price down to 75. If they then launched 8 launches, it would resolve at 60%, and you'd get 0.4 * 97 ~= 38.8 mana back on your 20 mana bet. At 9 launches, you'd get 19.4 back. At 10+, you'd get zero back.

And if you bet the yes side, you could bet 20 mana, which wouldn't move the price, and you'd get 24 shares. You'd get 19.2 mana back for 9 launches, or 24 mana for 10. Or if went against you, you'd get 14.4 back on 8 launches, or 9.6 on 7. (Which is the worst it could be at this point, since 7 launches have happened.)

Hope that explains it a bit! Welcome to Manifold!

@TrickyDuck The description did include

"So 5 or less launches in October 2023 pays 0%

6 launches in October 2023 pays 20%

7 launches in October 2023 pays 40%

...

10 or more launches in October 2023 pays 100%"

I think I would now be more inclined to write this in description as

"So 5 or less launches in October 2023 results in this question resolving at 0%

6 launches in October 2023 results in this question resolving at 20%

7 launches in October 2023 results in this question resolving at 40%

...

10 or more launches in October 2023 results in this question resolving at 100%"

But if you have other suggestion(s) to write it more clearly, do let me know.

Sorry if I have confused anyone.

Many questions are simple yes no to a question. This is a little more complex where the outcome can be at several different values depending on something, in this case number of SpaceX launches. This is more like the numeric type questions that used to exist

eg https://manifold.markets/ianminds/how-often-will-starship-have-launch

But they stopped allowing that type a while ago so ends up with this sort of thing being used instead despite the problems of it being more awkward to explain.

6 launches so far:

• Starlink Group 6-21 (Oct 5, SLC-40)

• Starlink Group 7-4 (Oct 9, SLC-4E)

• Psyche (Oct 13, LC-39A)

• Starlink Group 6-22 (Oct 13, SLC-40)

• Starlink Group 6-23 (Oct 18, SLC-40)

• Starlink Group 7-5 (Oct 21, SLC-4E)

3 more planned:

• Starlink Group 6-24 (Oct 22, SLC-40)

• Starlink Group 7-6 (Oct 27, SLC-4E)

• Starlink Group 6-25 (Oct 28?, SLC-40)

A Starship launch in October is very unlikely now.

@dp9000 yes, also 28th Oct from pad 40 doesn't really allow another from that pad in Oct. For 39A likely needs all the time from 9th Oct to get ready for CRS-29 on 6th, but even if not, droneship probably not available until 30th at earliest and that probably wouldn't be enough time to change pad for a dragon launch on 6th. VSFB if used on 27th definitely won't be ready for another launch in Oct.

That just leaves Starship, which would AFAICS probably need FWS to decide that water deluge system wasn't sufficient to need further review & consultation period etc despite the reinitiation request from FAA (this seems highly unlikely to me) and FAA to complete their reviews and issue licence and all of these would have to happen very soon.

Discussions on space forums hint that a Starship launch appears increasingly likely in the next few weeks, but no clear sense of if would be before or after Nov 1.

3 more Falcon 9 launches scheduled within the next week.

A Starship launch would really help; no indication of when that might happen, though.

4 launches!

A Falcon 9 launched a payload of Starlink satellites on October 5.

@TrickyDuck Yes that is the first in October. Also plans (I think) for 2 on 9th Oct and one on 12th, 15th, 19th and 22nd. (19th to 22nd is tight for same pad turnaround but other gaps more plausible with Psyche being RTLS)

So that is 7 launched and planned which would only lead to resolution at 40%. But there are further slots available from Vandenberg (perhaps 2?). I doubt they will manage to fit in 2 more from pad 40 and while that might not be impossible one or none seems more likely. 39A will take time to convert back from Falcon Heavy configuration but even if ready by end of month droneship availability may well limit number of launches rather than pad availability. Then there is question of whether Starship gets a revised launch licence.

Recently has often looked like they might fit in 10 but then some delays mean they don't get there. However they did manage 10 in September for first time.

Is the way this is worded better than previous versions?

e.g.

https://manifold.markets/ChristopherRandles/number-of-spacex-orbital-launches-i-5e8a983fdaea

(Number of SpaceX orbital launches in September 2023 -5)*20

62% chance. Launch counts if it actually takes-off in tact as intended and is intended to be orbital or very close to that. Orbital can be as short as 1 complete orbit. Very close to orbital requires intending final stage to travel at least 50% of way around Earth and either maximum altitude over 150 km or having altitude and speed energy sufficient for a 100km or more altitude circular orbit. Numbers for calendar months this year are January 2023 7 February 2023 6 March 2023 8 April 2023 7 (including one starship launch) May 2023 9 June 2023 7 To July 18th 4 Uses UTC times