So 5 or less launches in November 2023 and this question resolves at 0%

if 6 launches in November 2023 then resolves at 20%

if 7 launches in November 2023 then resolves at 40%

...

if 10 or more launches in November 2023 then resolves at 100%

Holding a no position will pay the complement so if there are 8 launches pays 60% of yes position to yes position holders then no position holders will receive 40% of their no position for that holding.

Launch counts if it actually takes-off in tact as intended and is intended to be orbital or very close to that.

Orbital can be as short as 1 complete orbit.

Very close to orbital requires intending final stage to travel at least 50% of way around Earth and either maximum altitude over 150 km or having altitude and speed energy sufficient for a 100km or more altitude circular orbit.

Numbers for calendar months this year are

January 2023 7

February 2023 6

March 2023 8

April 2023 7 (including one starship launch)

May 2023 9

June 2023 7

July 2023 8

August 2023 8

September 2023 10

October 2023 9

Uses UTC times.

I will extend closing time if the final answer will not be clear.