(Number of SpaceX orbital launches in September 2023 -5)*20
5
110แน€2193
resolved Sep 30
Resolved as
100.0%

Launch counts if it actually takes-off in tact as intended and is intended to be orbital or very close to that.

Orbital can be as short as 1 complete orbit.

Very close to orbital requires intending final stage to travel at least 50% of way around Earth and either maximum altitude over 150 km or having altitude and speed energy sufficient for a 100km or more altitude circular orbit.

Numbers for calendar months this year are

January 2023 7

February 2023 6

March 2023 8

April 2023 7 (including one starship launch)

May 2023 9

June 2023 7

To July 18th 4

Uses UTC times


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10 launched so resolves at 100%. No point in keeping it open to end of month.

predictedYES

October is at

https://manifold.markets/ChristopherRandles/pays-20-for-each-spacex-launch-over

Pays 20% for each SpaceX launch over 5 in October 2023
66% chance. So 5 or less launches in October 2023 pays 0% 6 launches in October 2023 pays 20% 7 launches in October 2023 pays 40% ... 10 or more launches in October 2023 pays 100% Launch counts if it actually takes-off in tact as intended and is intended to be orbital or very close to that. Orbital can be as short as 1 complete orbit. Very close to orbital requires intending final stage to travel at least 50% of way around Earth and either maximum altitude over 150 km or having altitude and speed energy sufficient for a 100km or more altitude circular orbit. Numbers for calendar months this year are January 2023 7 February 2023 6 March 2023 8 April 2023 7 (including one starship launch) May 2023 9 June 2023 7 July 2023 8 August 2023 8 Uses UTC times

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