Manifold Plays Poker (Hand 8), The River, Who will win?
4
155Ṁ1051
resolved Sep 15
100%64%
Odoacre
36%
Audience
0.1%Other

This resolves to the winner(s) of hand 8 equally.

Add your name if you have bought in, and got through deal, flop and turn betting rounds and wish to continue.

With 1 players plus audience, nought or one players is the ideal number that will drop out.

If Odoacre's name is not added, then the audience wins.

If Odoacre's name is added then both will go through to showdown if the difference in %chance shown at closure is 30% or less.

If the gap in % between Audience and Odoacre is more than 30% then leading percentage will win without a showdown.

This round will close early at a random predetermined time within 3 hours before 00:00 UTC.

The Flop, Turn and River

The Audience's Hand:

My only tades will be if I think bets are obvious from public information only. If I make a profit on any bets this will go to the winner on the hand.

Have fun, enjoy and feel free to add any side markets.

The starting point with more rule explanations is at

https://manifold.markets/ChristopherRandles/manifold-plays-poker-hand-8-buy-in

Manifold plays poker, Hand 8, Buy in. Who will win?

We're playing a variation based on Texas Hold 'Em specially designed for working on Manifold over a series of markets.


Manifold plays poker, Hand 8, Buy in. Who will win?
We're playing a variation based on Texas Hold 'Em specially designed for working on Manifold over a series of markets. This is the central place for info for this hand. New questions will be posted here as we go (I will try to remember). This question resolves to the winner(s) equally at the end of the hand. Note that bets here don't determine the result of the game. Go to the current round's question for that. Current Status Flop is down. https://manifold.markets/ChristopherRandles/manifold-plays-poker-hand-8-the-flo The Flop [image]Audience hand [image]How It Works You can get a hand here by adding yourself to the list. Players who get a hand are welcome to share it, or team up, bluff, obfuscate, and misdirect, whether on the questions, over discord, or wherever they see fit. They're also welcome to bet for or against their opponents! After a few days up to a week, I'll kick off the game with the first of the rapid (~1 day) questions for each of the four rounds of betting (Deal, Flop, Turn, River). I will close each of the rounds early at an unannounced time between 8:00 and 11:00 UTC. If there is insufficient interest I might NA this. When I create the round markets (and know how many players are in each round I will announce how many players are likely to be dropped in that round. e.g. If there are 8 players, 25% is 2 so I might announce that "1, 2, or 3 players are likely to be dropped but if there are no gaps in the % chances shown by the UI for players to allow this then it might be 4 and if this is not possible either then it will be 0 players dropped." Examples with above announcement If the % displayed are 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 23 then we look at ratio of UI% 9/8 is larger than 10/9 or 11/10 so 1 player is dropped. If the % displayed are 10 10 10 10 14 15 15 16 then there is no gap for 1, 2 or 3 to be dropped but there is a gap for 4 to be dropped so 4 it is. If the % displayed are 10 10 10 10 10 15 15 20 then there are no gaps for 1 2 3 or 4 players to be dropped so it is 0 dropped. Players who wish to continue have to add their name each round (cost 25 mana). Anyone who gets through previous round but does not add their name counts towards the number dropped. Adding your name if you did not get through previous rounds will not change that you did not get through and I will try to comment on this as soon as possible if others haven't already done so. The Audience Hand works exactly like personal hands, except it: gets 3 cards 2 publicly visible with the third revealed at showdown if the audience reaches that far or after showdown. The hand can use zero, one or two of the three cards only and are selected to make best possible poker hand with at least 3 of the 5 spread cards was bought in by me The round questions resolve at the end of the game to the winner(s), equally. If two or more players get through all rounds I'll reveal their hands, announce the winner(s), and resolve all the remaining questions accordingly. If for whatever reason every player folds at any stage, the win goes to the player who had the highest valuation in the previous round. As you might have noticed, the rules of this special variant allow for mismatched bets by players. Feel free to jump in. Admins and Manifold staff also have no inherent advantage, so don't be shy! As I'll know all of the cards, I won't be betting or playing in the rounds, and I cannot be bribed to reveal other players' information or tilt in your favor except with official cheats. My house cut is simply the trader bonuses on any questions I make for this, though I'll accept tips for my role as dealer if you're so inclined. Of course, side markets are welcome. Feel free to add them to the Manifold Plays Poker group and comment them here for shared visibility Will my next poker hand be trash again? https://manifold.markets/nickten/will-my-next-poker-hand-be-trash-ag Manifold playes poker hand 8 - will the audience's hidden card play https://manifold.markets/Odoacre/manifold-playes-poker-hand-8-will-t

Side Markets

Will my next poker hand be trash again?

https://manifold.markets/nickten/will-my-next-poker-hand-be-trash-ag

will the audience's hidden card play

https://manifold.markets/Odoacre/manifold-playes-poker-hand-8-will-t

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I have run 2 hands. Not sure how long it will be before Pat is back but there may be time for someone else to run one if they want. So I will say I won't run another, at least not in short term.

Hope you enjoyed the hands.

@ChristopherRandles sounds good! thanks for running these. I think I'll wait until after Manifest to see how I feel. for now I think a break is nice

So the difference was 28% so both go to showdown.

An interesting hand in some ways even if the betting seemed boring. I'll get to why but for the moment I need to decide how much time to leave between posts for dramatic effect and jeopardy enhancement.

First I think I will reveal the two hands have the same general level eg both have two pair but it isn't two pair. So you can work out it isn't both having 3 of a kind or a straight or flushes ....

Yes it is both having a full house.

Odoacres hand is

So Kings full of 7s.

But what is the audience blind card? A K would give Kings full of Queens for an audience win, but it could also be a Q or a 7.

So to the audience reveal ... drum roll ....

Queens full of Kings.

Odoacre wins.

Interesting in that there were lots of twists and turns but few if any were visible to the players during the game:

Audience dealt a powerful hand.

Odoacre got a great flop putting him ahead.

The Audience got the turn needed to go back ahead.

Finally unbeknown to Odoacre, the river 7 was badly needed to put him back ahead.

@ChristopherRandles what a crazy hand. Thank you for running it.

I apologise for the boringness of my bets. I considered spicing it up by revealing my hand or by attempting to fold out the audience on the river, but turned out deciding not to do either.

I was afraid of triggering a tug of war and ending out folded out myself or in the best scenario suckering in too much other people's mana. (Also I did not really have the nuts so could actually lose)

I should have tried to start up at least a conversation.

If you decide to run another I will definitely partecipate again and try to do better

Random time selected 2 from 2 hours 15 minutes to close time

does odo have the king 🤔

will a player be eliminated? or will we have a showdown?

@Stralor the bigger question is does the audience have a K.

Just Odoacre and Audience get through to the River.

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