Manifold Plays Poker (Hand 8), The Flop, Who will win?
6
345แน€1076
resolved Sep 15
100%40%
Odoacre
38%
Audience
1.4%
19%
Pat Scott :sandal: :sandal: :scandal:
2%Other

This resolves to the winner(s) of hand 8 equally.

Add your name if you have bought in and wish to continue.

With 4 players plus audience, one or two players is the ideal number that will drop out. Anyone that bought in but does not get their name added in this question will be dropped (considered folded) and will count towards this number.

If gaps in percentage displayed allow either one or two people to be dropped, then the largest ratio of %chance displayed will be used as the cut off. For example, if the percentages displayed for 5 players are 15% 16% 17% 25% 27% then 16/15 is larger than 17/16 so just one player is dropped.

If the ratios are the same or there are no gaps allowing 1 or 2 players to be dropped then none shall be dropped

This round will close early at a random predetermined time within 3 hours before 00:00 UTC.

The Flop

The Audience's Hand:

My only tades will be if I think bets are obvious from public information only. If I make a profit on any bets this will go to the winner on the hand.

Have fun, enjoy and feel free to add any side markets.

The starting point with more rule explanations is at

https://manifold.markets/ChristopherRandles/manifold-plays-poker-hand-8-buy-in

Manifold plays poker, Hand 8, Buy in. Who will win?
We're playing a variation based on Texas Hold 'Em specially designed for working on Manifold over a series of markets. This is the central place for info for this hand. New questions will be posted here as we go (I will try to remember). This question resolves to the winner(s) equally at the end of the hand. Note that bets here don't determine the result of the game. Go to the current round's question for that. Current Status Deal has started. https://manifold.markets/ChristopherRandles/manifold-plays-poker-hand-8-the-dea Deadline for joining 12:00 UTC on 11 September. Audience hand [image]How It Works You can get a hand here by adding yourself to the list. Players who get a hand are welcome to share it, or team up, bluff, obfuscate, and misdirect, whether on the questions, over discord, or wherever they see fit. They're also welcome to bet for or against their opponents! After a few days up to a week, I'll kick off the game with the first of the rapid (~1 day) questions for each of the four rounds of betting (Deal, Flop, Turn, River). I will close each of the rounds early at an unannounced time between 8:00 and 11:00 UTC. If there is insufficient interest I might NA this. When I create the round markets (and know how many players are in each round I will announce how many players are likely to be dropped in that round. e.g. If there are 8 players, 25% is 2 so I might announce that "1, 2, or 3 players are likely to be dropped but if there are no gaps in the % chances shown by the UI for players to allow this then it might be 4 and if this is not possible either then it will be 0 players dropped." Examples with above announcement If the % displayed are 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 23 then we look at ratio of UI% 9/8 is larger than 10/9 or 11/10 so 1 player is dropped. If the % displayed are 10 10 10 10 14 15 15 16 then there is no gap for 1, 2 or 3 to be dropped but there is a gap for 4 to be dropped so 4 it is. If the % displayed are 10 10 10 10 10 15 15 20 then there are no gaps for 1 2 3 or 4 players to be dropped so it is 0 dropped. Players who wish to continue have to add their name each round (cost 25 mana). Anyone who gets through previous round but does not add their name counts towards the number dropped. Adding your name if you did not get through previous rounds will not change that you did not get through and I will try to comment on this as soon as possible if others haven't already done so. The Audience Hand works exactly like personal hands, except it: gets 3 cards 2 publicly visible with the third revealed at showdown if the audience reaches that far or after showdown. The hand can use zero, one or two of the three cards only and are selected to make best possible poker hand with at least 3 of the 5 spread cards was bought in by me The round questions resolve at the end of the game to the winner(s), equally. If two or more players get through all rounds I'll reveal their hands, announce the winner(s), and resolve all the remaining questions accordingly. If for whatever reason every player folds at any stage, the win goes to the player who had the highest valuation in the previous round. As you might have noticed, the rules of this special variant allow for mismatched bets by players. Feel free to jump in. Admins and Manifold staff also have no inherent advantage, so don't be shy! As I'll know all of the cards, I won't be betting or playing in the rounds, and I cannot be bribed to reveal other players' information or tilt in your favor except with official cheats. My house cut is simply the trader bonuses on any questions I make for this, though I'll accept tips for my role as dealer if you're so inclined. Of course, side markets are welcome. Feel free to add them to the Manifold Plays Poker group and comment them here for shared visibility Will my next poker hand be trash again? https://manifold.markets/nickten/will-my-next-poker-hand-be-trash-ag
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Audience, Pat Scott. and Odoacre go through.

Nickten and A folded

Closing after 21:00 UTC and before 24:00 UTC so possibly as soon as 4 hours

Should have announced that 1 or 2 were to be dropped and RealLies / f counts as 1.

The ratio 9/0 is larger than 15/9 so it is just one dropped.

Going through and eligible to enter name above are Audience, Pat Scott, Nickten ,Odoacre, and A with just f / RealLies dropped.

Sorry but @f didn't get through the deal so adding @f here has no effect.

@f sorry I did try @ ing you a few times.

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