Global Average Temperature 2026 per LOTI v4 vs 1951-1980 base period (NASA Gistemp)

Question

Details of data is currently at https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/

with a txt file with the data at data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt

(or such updated location or updated version for this Gistemp v4 LOTI data)

For this annual market, it is the J-D column for 2026 when that is shown after Dec 2026 data has been published.

More options can be added but please keep these sensible.

January 2024 might show as 124 in hundredths of a degree C, this is +1.24C above the 1951-1980 base period. If it shows as 1.22 then it is in degrees i.e. 1.22C. Same logic/interpretation as this will be applied.

If the version or base period changes then I will consult with traders over what is best way for any such change to have least effect on betting positions or consider N/A if it is unclear what the sensible least effect resolution should be.

Numbers expected to be displayed to hundredth of a degree. The extra digit used here is to ensure understanding that a display of +1.35C causes the 1.345C or more option to resolve yes.

Resolves per first update seen by me or posted as long, as there is no reason to think data shown is significantly in error. If there is reason to think there may be an error then resolution will be delayed at least 24 hours. Minor later update should not cause a need to re-resolve.

I also do monthly markets like
August 2026 Global Average Temperature August 2026 per LOTI v4 vs 1951-1980 base period (NASA Gistemp)‌ 
September 2026 Global Average Temperature Sept 2026 per LOTI v4 vs 1951-1980 base period (NASA Gistemp)‌

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, 1.275 degrees Celsius or more, followed by 1.295 degrees Celsius or more and 1.315 degrees Celsius or more are most likely. See the market for live updates (8 traders, as of Oct 25, 2026).