Data is currently at
csv file
or
(or such updated location or updated version for this Gistemp v4 LOTI data see
data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt )
January 2024 might show as 124 in hundredths of a degree C, this is +1.24C above the 1951-1980 base period. If it shows as 1.22 then it is in degrees i.e. 1.22C. Same logic/interpretation as this will be applied.
If the version or base period changes then I will consult with traders over what is best way for any such change to have least effect on betting positions or consider N/A if it is unclear what the sensible least effect resolution should be.
Numbers expected to be displayed to hundredth of a degree. The extra digit used here is to ensure understanding that +1.20C resolves to an exceed 1.195C option.
Resolves per first update seen by me or posted as long, as there is no reason to think data shown is significantly in error. If there is reason to think there may be an error then resolution will be delayed at least 24 hours. Minor later update should not cause a need to re-resolve.
I do other similar markets
Annual 2026 https://manifold.markets/ChristopherRandles/global-average-temperature-2026-per-28LyRdCc55
1,000At the moment September looks to definitely be below 2023 based on the medium range, but it probably will end up being ranked 2nd by anomaly (not far from August's anomaly).
MTD Anomaly from medium range super ensemble up until Sept 16 has some familiar hot spots like August did (El Nino and central US):
Looking at EC46 SST forecasts for El Nino, the absolute values for NINO1+2 and NINO4, do increase in September (especially the latter half of the month) while NINO3 is mostly flat with a very small increase. Consequentially the daily RONI only shows a very modest increase in September, with it being mostly flat for the first half
These last two weeks were also the first time the models validated as too warm relative to observations (blue == model predicted too cold):
So based on all this we probably should expect the latter half of September to be slightly warmer than climo (beyond what EC46 suggests).