There is much speculation that apple will launch a new XR (AR and/or VR and/or MR) product in 2023.
This market predicts whether or not that product will ship with a web browser at launch. If the market predicts yes, then the product will include a web browser at launch.
If multiple XR products are launched, this market will resolve to yes if any of those XR products include a web browser.
Criteria for what constitutes a credible web browser include:
User can browse within the headset; it is ok if this requires a separate keyboard or other peripheral, so long as the user stays in the VR/AR experience
The browser is capable of navigating to arbitrary URLs, subject to ordinary degree of spam/fraud/phishing prevention
The browser is capable of rendering ordinary web content, compatible with at least 80% of existing web content
No requirement is made on support for WebXR or similar APIs at launch
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Inactive creator, resolving YES as per discussion below.
The creator said:
I'm open to some flexibility of interpretation given a developer-focused device is slated to ship but: is that more than a rumor? Any citations available?
and this did in fact happen. Although "some flexibility" isn't a definitive statement about how they would treat it, it seems more reasonable to count it than not.
For what its worth, if you're considering making markets about product releases, good to specify up front how broad the release needs to be to count (developer preview, wait-list, alpha, beta, public release in one country, two countries, release world-wide, etc). These corner cases come up very frequently, so something to keep in mind.
@chrisjbillington @firstuserhere this case maybe a bit harder to decide, the author was open to considering dev access to Vision Pro as counting, which later did get confirmed but author was already inactive. See discussions below.
@gigab0nus The author @ChrisJoel has been inactive for more than 3 months, in fact that activity (including this market and a couple related ones) was the only activity by the author ever. To me this suggests it’s very likely that mods/admins will have to resolve this, or maybe trusty badgers when it closes next year, applying their best interpretation of the criteria against the relevant facts, which you have summarized well. Note the author said this in a reply below when asked about this very question of shipping to developers:
I'm open to some flexibility of interpretation given a developer-focused device is slated to ship but: is that more than a rumor? Any citations available?
The uncertainty about it being a rumor has since been resolved, yet their vague “open to some flexibility of interpretation” phrase unfortunately leaves us once again in limbo. I would say this should resolve YES, or at worst N/A if mods have doubts, but never NO.
Edit: the fact that all traders except the two bots are on YES suggests we all read the author comment as implying they would resolve YES upon confirmation that it did ship to developers this year.
“now shipping units to developers” —Tim Cook, Aug 3, 2023.
https://sixcolors.com/post/2023/08/this-is-tim-apples-q3-2023-analyst-call-transcribed/
@Kronopath I'm open to some flexibility of interpretation given a developer-focused device is slated to ship but: is that more than a rumor? Any citations available?
@ChrisJoel The keynote said they’d be “working with developers in the coming months”. Not sure specifically what that means right now, admittedly. It’s possible that it’s a stretch to say it’s “shipping”.
Proposed firmer criteria, what do you think?
Resolves YES if the headset does launch and it meets the following within three months of launch:
user can browse within the headset (ok if this requires using a separate keyboard or other peripheral, so long as the user stays in the VR/AR experience)
browser is capable of going to arbitrary URLs, subject to ordinary degree of spam/fraud/phishing prevention
browser is capable of rendering ordinary web content, say compatible with at least 80% of existing web content
no requirement is made on support for WebXR or similar APIs at launch