Will the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) do anything meaningful by July 4th 2026?
Basic
5
Ṁ662026
40%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Department_of_Government_Efficiency
Did Trump give Elon and Vivek real influence or a fake role to keep them away from him?
It's not a federal executive department, but they have aspirations of cutting the federal workforce by over 50%.
This market resolves YES if there's a media consensus that DOGE has done something meaningful (i.e. not just write a report, but actually influence the federal budget).
Shutting down the Department of Education might count if it is attributed to Musk/Ramaswamy.
An app to file taxes doesn't seem significant enough unless the IRS loses most of it's funding.
May resolve N/A if ambiguous.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Related questions
Related questions
Will the US federal government actually have a "Department of Government Efficiency"?
18% chance
Will Trump actually create a department of government efficiency by the end of 2026?
79% chance
Will the Department of Government Efficiency accomplish anything of note?
50% chance
Will the Department of Government Efficiency lead to at least 10,000 federal government layoffs by 4th of July 2026?
68% chance
Will the Department of Government Efficiency lead to at least 100,000 federal government layoffs by 4th of July 2026?
24% chance
Will the Department of Government Efficiency recommend cancelling SLS before 2029?
61% chance
Will the Department of Government Efficiency recommend cancelling Blue Origin's Human Landing System before 2029?
27% chance
If a random 50% of federal bureaucrats are instantly fired on January 21st 2025, will anything break as a result?
66% chance
Will the 2025-2029 administration close a federal department in the US before Jan 20th, 2029?
50% chance
Will any major three letter USA federal agency stop operating before 2045, if yes, which one first?