Will the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) do anything meaningful by July 4th 2026?

100Ṁ1629

2026

92%

chance

ALL

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Department_of_Government_Efficiency

Did Trump give Elon and Vivek real influence or a fake role to keep them away from him?

It's not a federal executive department, but they have aspirations of cutting the federal workforce by over 50%.

This market resolves YES if there's a media consensus that DOGE has done something meaningful (i.e. not just write a report, but actually influence the federal budget).

Shutting down the Department of Education might count if it is attributed to Musk/Ramaswamy.

An app to file taxes doesn't seem significant enough unless the IRS loses most of it's funding.

May resolve N/A if ambiguous.

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bought Ṁ250 YES

Even if everything DOGE did is reversed today, this should still resolve YES. Just the PR generated has been significant.

It's clear DOGE wasn't a 'fake role' like you had hoped.

@Shai not hoped just heard and needed clarity on at the time.

I mostly agree but it seems premature to resolve in just 2 months.

@ChinmayTheMathGuy Sorry, I'm working on being less of an ass online.

@Shai u fine. That wasn't that bad of an assumption.

filled a Ṁ5 YES at 98% order

Surely them "shutting down" USAID (even if they're doing it unlawfully) has to count as something meaningful, right?

filled a Ṁ50 YES at 99.0% order

@Marnix yeah seems like a clear YES already.

@MartinRandall probably but I'll wait for some time before resolving to see if it's all reversed by courts or something.

Is there a market for the dept not being shut down by 4 Jul 2026?

I won't trade in this because it's subjective but Musk being able to shut down a government funding bill seems like he and DOGE have significant sway on government policy