Will the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) do anything meaningful by July 4th 2026?
Will the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) do anything meaningful by July 4th 2026?
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100Ṁ16292026
92%
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https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Department_of_Government_Efficiency
Did Trump give Elon and Vivek real influence or a fake role to keep them away from him?
It's not a federal executive department, but they have aspirations of cutting the federal workforce by over 50%.
This market resolves YES if there's a media consensus that DOGE has done something meaningful (i.e. not just write a report, but actually influence the federal budget).
Shutting down the Department of Education might count if it is attributed to Musk/Ramaswamy.
An app to file taxes doesn't seem significant enough unless the IRS loses most of it's funding.
May resolve N/A if ambiguous.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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