Resolves on news reports from at least one of: • ABC • CBS • NBC • PBS • NPR • CNN • Fox • MSNBC • Associated Press • New York Times • Washington Examiner • Wall Street Journal • USA Today Update 2024-18-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): • Announcements must be made by officials speaking on behalf of the government Personal tweets/statements not made in an official government capacity will not count Update 2025-02-21 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Elimination Resolution: If DOGE announces that its goal is the elimination of an agency, it resolves YES, even if some of the agency's functions are taken up by another agency. Official Announcement Requirement: Only announcements made by officials speaking on behalf of the government count.

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, Public Broadcasting Service (PBS), followed by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and National Park Service (NPS) are most likely. See the market for live updates (50 traders, as of Apr 30, 2026).

Which government agencies will DOGE announce it seeks to privatize or eliminate?

MANIFOLD

Which government agencies will DOGE announce it seeks to privatize or eliminate?

Ṁ2.3kṀ14k

Jul 5

14%

Public Broadcasting Service (PBS)

12%

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)

11%

National Park Service (NPS)

10%

Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA)

10%

Freddie Mac

10%

National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB)

Fannie Mae

Bureau of Alcohol, Firearms, and Tobacco

National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA)

Ginnie Mae

Federal Statistical Agencies

Small Business Administration

Federal Bureau of Investigations

Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

Transportation Security Administration (TSA)

National Weather Service

Internal Revenue Service

National Institutes of Health

United States Agency for International Development (USAID)

The Supreme Court

Resolves on news reports from at least one of:

• ABC

• CBS

• NBC

• PBS

• NPR

• CNN

• Fox

• MSNBC

• Associated Press

• New York Times

• Washington Examiner

• Wall Street Journal

• USA Today

Update 2024-18-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): • Announcements must be made by officials speaking on behalf of the government
- Personal tweets/statements not made in an official government capacity will not count

Update 2025-02-21 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Elimination Resolution: If DOGE announces that its goal is the elimination of an agency, it resolves YES, even if some of the agency's functions are taken up by another agency.
- Official Announcement Requirement: Only announcements made by officials speaking on behalf of the government count.

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How will these resolve if no announcements come from DoGE to the public, and Trump instead directly announces his intention to eliminate/privatize them instead? That is to say - how's this resolve if Trump preempts DoGE?

bought Ṁ522 YES

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/doge/elon-musk-suggests-us-privatize-postal-service-amtrak-rcna194960

Elon Musk suggests the U.S. should privatize the Postal Service and Amtrak

Trump adviser and tech mogul Elon Musk suggested Wednesday that the U.S. government should privatize "as much as possible" and named Amtrak and the U.S.

@Marnix He was not speaking on behalf of the government here.

@Shai Yes. I don't think this should resolve yes now - but I'm very confident it will.

@JeffBerman Is incorporating it into a different agency or department considered "eliminate"?

What if it gets fully absorbed? is there a gray line here? where is it? or does "eliminate" only mean in cases where the function doesn't exist anymore

@FergusArgyll What we're tracking here is which agencies DOGE announces it seeks to privatize or eliminate. If the goal is the elimination of that agency, that resolves YES. Whether or not some of its work is taken up by another agency does not play a part in the resolution.

Perhaps, due to the legal issues (ahem) of unilaterally eliminating entire agencies, DOGE will simply gut them from the inside leaving the agency itself technically active (maybe with a single digit number of employees). Then congress can pass laws to dissolve said agencies or assign new requirements to beef them up again.