DOGE has announced plans to rewrite the Social Security Administration's software systems, which contain more than 60 million lines of COBOL code. This market asks what percentage of that code will be successfully replaced with modern programming languages by the end of 2025.
Resolution will be based on official SSA or DOGE statements, credible news reports, or government oversight documentation that specifically quantifies the progress made.
If no official data is available market will resolve to <50%
This market does not contemplate outages or errors. It is about the code replacement.
Sources:
Update 2025-04-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Uncontested Evidence Requirement:
Any claim regarding the achievement of code replacement must be relatively uncontested by independent, credible sources.
In particular, if DOGE’s own statements are used, they must be supported by corroborative evidence from official SSA or other credible reporting without significant dispute.
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@RexSalisbury Just asking because I feel a strong temptation to just ask an LLM, but also that with various knowledge cutoffs and at times dubious sources cited, that I have an obligation to at least verify, and I'm wondering how other people are approaching this. I think I mainly read the cited sources, but struggle with getting the time criteria right (often sources are old or omitted).
@RexSalisbury Will your judgment take into consideration DOGE's documented prior misrepresentations of achievements?
@WilliamGunn DOGE has exaggerated many claims, so the claim they had achieved this would need to be relatively uncontested.