MANIFOLD
Joe Biden life expectancy (in binary)
4
Ṁ160Ṁ263
2198
1%
128
99%
64
9%
32
91%
16
18%
8
26%
4
69%
2
50%
1
50%
0.5 (1/2)
50%
0.25 (1/4)
50%
0.125 (1/8)
50%
0.0625 (1/16)
50%
0.03125 (1/32)
50%
0.015625 (1/64)
50%
0.0078125 (1/128)
50%
0.00390625 (1/256)

For the sake of this question, Biden was born on November 20th, 1942 at 8:30 AM ET

A year is defined as 365.25 days.

The market for k = 2^n resolves as

Floor ([Biden's lifespan (in years)] (mod 2k) ÷ k)

Example calculation:

Suppose Biden lives until 3/5/2035.

That would be

92.287 years which in binary is

64 + 16 + 8 + 4 + 0.25 + 0.03125 + 0.00390625 (1011100.01001001 in binary)

so the markets would resolve

128 - NO

64 - YES

32 - NO

16 - YES

8 - YES

4 - YES

2 - NO

1 - NO

0.5 - NO

0.25 - YES

0.125 - NO

0.0625 - NO

0.03125 - YES

0.015625 - NO

  • Update 2025-18-01 (PST): - Any that are ambiguous resolve to 50% (AI summary of creator comment)

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Joe Biden
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Any that are ambiguous resolve to 50%

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