2024 Presidential Election Result Markets:

Basic

Ṁ2768

Nov 10

99%

Republicans sweep all 7 swing states

99%

Republicans win 300+ EVs (ignore faithless electors)

99%

Given no upsets (Dem or Rep), Republicans win election

98%

No upsets

80%

Given ≥1 upset, Republicans win election

Democrats win 300+ EVs (ignore faithless electors)

1.4%

Republicans get upset (i.e. Dems win FL, TX, ME-2, OH, IA, or AK)

Democrats get upset (i.e. Reps win NE-2, MN, NH, ME, VA, or NM)

both Republicans and Democrats get upset

Democrats sweep all 7 swing states

Definitions:

Upset = party that won that state/district lost by >3% in 2020 election

This includes 226 Democratic Electoral Votes (includes NE-2) and 219 Republican Electoral Votes (includes ME-2).

There are 7 swing states (within 3% in 2020) namely:

NC - 16
GA - 16
AZ - 11
WI - 10
PA - 19
NV - 6
MI - 15

In total, they account for 93 Electoral Votes

See

https://www.270towin.com/road-to-270-combinations/?mapstr=22201111120122122221110122202211101221012222211102212212&year=2024

for relevant scenarios.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#🇺🇸 US Politics

#️ Politics

#🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election

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bought Ṁ20 Democrats win 300+ E... NO

OK I think

30% chance - Dems win with 300+ EVs

30% chance - Reps win with 300+ EVs

40% chance - both parties between 239 and 299 EVs

25% chance - Dems get upset (in MN, NH, NE-2, VA, NM, or ME)

25% chance - Reps get upset (in FL, ME-2, TX, IA, OH, or AK)

50% chance - no upsets

This market has the same definition of tossup

https://manifold.markets/BoltonBailey/in-a-hypothetical-election-where-ev?r=Q2hpbm1heVRoZU1hdGhHdXk

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