đ Top traders
# | Name | Total profit |
---|---|---|
1 | áš881 | |
2 | áš504 | |
3 | áš462 | |
4 | áš384 | |
5 | áš360 |
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Yevbought áš20 of NOMetaculus predicts 14%.
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9939/kyiv-to-fall-to-russian-forces-by-april-2022/
Lorenzosold áš16 of YESAligning with https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9939/kyiv-to-fall-to-russian-forces-by-april-2022/
Charles Vorbachbought áš100 of NOThis seems significant to me.
https://twitter.com/KofmanMichael/status/1499967950975115269
Conner Gaglianobought áš370 of NOThis seems relatively high given that US officials have stated that US senators were briefed that it will take at least another week before Kyiv is fully encircled and around another 30 days until Kyiv is seized. This is along with news that those Russian columns trying to encircle Kyiv are literally running out of gas and Ukraine is bombing the supply convoys with Bayraktars.
Patrick Delaneybought áš1 of NORussia threatening nuclear attack is basically admitting that they lost.
Miro Furtadobought áš80 of NOMy guess is that the resolve conditions of this market will be biased towards "no" (reluctance to acknowledge what is effective control b/c Russia is a Western adversary) but the reality on the ground will soon be a likely "yes."

colorednoisebought áš200 of NOI don't see how this is so high, I'd say 20% makes sense. I'd invest more but I want to bet on other things as well.
Jamesbought áš100 of NOThis war may be costly for Russia if Ukraine is putting up a fight. I could imagine Russia making peace and backing out, or fighting harder for certain territories closer to Russia instead of Kyiv.
hagisold áš37 of YESIt really depends on what "control Kiev" means. If the Ukranian Government does surrender before that and become a Russian puppet state, does this count?
Yevbought áš10 of NOAlmost arbitrage with https://manifold.markets/CharlesVorbach/will-russia-enter-kiev-by-march-31s
Sort by:
YES payouts
áš2,765
áš1,187
áš630
áš579
áš487
áš480
áš375
áš336
áš306
áš282
áš269
áš256
áš227
áš224
áš196
áš181
áš157
áš150
áš141
áš138
NO payouts
áš39,079
áš8,153
áš5,153
áš2,239
áš2,046
áš1,419
áš1,394
áš1,351
áš1,320
áš1,289
áš1,089
áš1,083
áš1,081
áš1,027
áš1,019
áš1,016
áš1,013
áš1,013
áš954
áš952
A trader sold áš20 NO at 1.4%
A trader sold áš21 NO at 1.4%
A trader bought áš1,409 NO at 1.4%
A trader bought áš1,832 NO from 1.5% to 1.4%
A trader bought áš204 NO at 1.5%
A trader bought áš20 NO at 1.5%
A trader sold áš108 YES from 1.7% to 1.5%
A trader bought áš62 NO at 1.7%
A trader bought áš200 NO at 1.7%
A trader bought áš200 NO from 1.8% to 1.7%
A trader bought áš20 NO at 1.8%
A trader bought áš900 NO at 1.8%
A trader bought áš497 NO at 1.8%
A trader bought áš1,240 NO from 1.9% to 1.8%
A trader sold áš4 YES at 1.9%
A trader bought áš30 NO at 1.9%
A trader bought áš20 NO at 1.9%
A trader bought áš30 NO at 1.9%
A trader bought áš1,010 NO at 1.9%
A trader bought áš35 NO at 1.9%
A trader bought áš945 NO from 2.0% to 1.9%
A trader bought áš30 NO at 2.0%
A trader bought áš941 NO at 2.0%
A trader bought áš1,676 NO from 2% to 2.0%
A trader bought áš100 NO at 2%
A trader bought áš300 NO at 2%
A trader bought áš6,256 NO at 2%
A trader bought áš2,000 NO from 3% to 2%
A trader sold áš20 NO at 3%
A trader bought áš20 NO at 3%
A trader bought áš1,000 NO at 3%
A trader sold áš110 YES at 3%
A trader sold áš4 YES at 3%
A trader bought áš938 NO at 3%
A trader bought áš91 NO at 3%
A trader bought áš1,300 NO at 3%
A trader bought áš49 NO at 3%
A trader bought áš200 NO at 3%
A trader sold áš502 NO at 3%
A trader bought áš1,000 NO at 3%
A trader bought áš1,849 NO at 3%
A trader bought áš10 NO at 3%
A trader bought áš100 NO at 3%
A trader bought áš2,200 NO from 4% to 3%
A trader bought áš50 NO at 4%
A trader bought áš330 NO at 4%
A trader bought áš1,061 NO at 4%
A trader bought áš900 NO at 4%
A trader bought áš100 NO at 4%
A trader sold áš6 YES at 4%