Will Russia control Kyiv as of April 2, 2022?
239
355
resolved Apr 3
Resolved
NO
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bought Ṁ50 of NO
Metaculus predicts 2.1%.
bought Ṁ100 of NO
This seems significant to me. https://twitter.com/KofmanMichael/status/1499967950975115269
bought Ṁ1,000 of NO
The Russians seem to be really struggling.
bought Ṁ370 of NO
This seems relatively high given that US officials have stated that US senators were briefed that it will take at least another week before Kyiv is fully encircled and around another 30 days until Kyiv is seized. This is along with news that those Russian columns trying to encircle Kyiv are literally running out of gas and Ukraine is bombing the supply convoys with Bayraktars.
bought Ṁ852 of NO
let's go!!!
bought Ṁ1 of NO
Russia threatening nuclear attack is basically admitting that they lost.
bought Ṁ80 of NO
My guess is that the resolve conditions of this market will be biased towards "no" (reluctance to acknowledge what is effective control b/c Russia is a Western adversary) but the reality on the ground will soon be a likely "yes."
bought Ṁ200 of NO
I don't see how this is so high, I'd say 20% makes sense. I'd invest more but I want to bet on other things as well.
bought Ṁ100 of NO
This war may be costly for Russia if Ukraine is putting up a fight. I could imagine Russia making peace and backing out, or fighting harder for certain territories closer to Russia instead of Kyiv.
sold Ṁ37 of YES
It really depends on what "control Kiev" means. If the Ukranian Government does surrender before that and become a Russian puppet state, does this count?
bought Ṁ100 of NO
I'm closer to 50% on this one.
bought Ṁ10 of NO
Almost arbitrage with https://manifold.markets/CharlesVorbach/will-russia-enter-kiev-by-march-31s