💬 Proven correct
Travis Fergason made M$453!

Metaculus predicts 14%.
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9939/kyiv-to-fall-to-russian-forces-by-april-2022/
0
0
This seems significant to me.
https://twitter.com/KofmanMichael/status/1499967950975115269
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This seems relatively high given that US officials have stated that US senators were briefed that it will take at least another week before Kyiv is fully encircled and around another 30 days until Kyiv is seized. This is along with news that those Russian columns trying to encircle Kyiv are literally running out of gas and Ukraine is bombing the supply convoys with Bayraktars.
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Russia threatening nuclear attack is basically admitting that they lost.
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My guess is that the resolve conditions of this market will be biased towards "no" (reluctance to acknowledge what is effective control b/c Russia is a Western adversary) but the reality on the ground will soon be a likely "yes."
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I don't see how this is so high, I'd say 20% makes sense. I'd invest more but I want to bet on other things as well.
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This war may be costly for Russia if Ukraine is putting up a fight. I could imagine Russia making peace and backing out, or fighting harder for certain territories closer to Russia instead of Kyiv.
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It really depends on what "control Kiev" means. If the Ukranian Government does surrender before that and become a Russian puppet state, does this count?
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Almost arbitrage with https://manifold.markets/CharlesVorbach/will-russia-enter-kiev-by-march-31s
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6 months ago
A trader bought M$20 of YES at 42%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$20 of NO at 42%
6 months ago
A trader sold M$206 of YES from 44% to 42%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$1 of YES at 44%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$100 of NO at 44%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$50 of YES at 44%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$20 of NO at 44%
6 months ago
A trader sold M$400 of NO from 42% to 44%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$400 of NO from 44% to 42%
6 months ago
A trader sold M$598 of NO from 41% to 44%
6 months ago
A trader sold M$528 of NO from 39% to 41%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$10 of YES at 39%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$5 of YES at 39%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$1 of NO at 39%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$50 of NO at 39%
6 months ago
A trader sold M$9 of YES at 39%
6 months ago
A trader sold M$33 of NO at 39%
6 months ago
A trader sold M$168 of YES from 40% to 39%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$20 of NO at 40%
6 months ago
A trader sold M$7 of YES at 40%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$523 of NO from 42% to 40%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$100 of YES at 42%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$20 of YES at 42%
6 months ago
A trader sold M$34 of YES at 42%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$20 of YES at 42%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$2 of YES at 42%
6 months ago
A trader sold M$426 of YES from 44% to 42%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$100 of NO from 45% to 44%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$100 of NO at 45%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$10 of NO at 45%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$300 of NO from 47% to 45%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$500 of YES from 44% to 47%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$30 of NO at 44%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$5 of YES at 44%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$20 of NO at 44%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$5 of YES at 44%
6 months ago
A trader sold M$169 of NO from 43% to 44%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$200 of YES from 42% to 43%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$171 of NO from 43% to 42%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$1,000 of NO from 48% to 43%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$11 of YES at 48%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$20 of YES at 48%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$20 of YES at 48%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$20 of YES from 47% to 48%
6 months ago
A trader sold M$406 of YES from 50% to 47%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$30 of NO at 50%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$900 of YES from 44% to 50%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$200 of NO from 45% to 44%
6 months ago
A trader sold M$173 of YES from 47% to 45%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$567 of NO from 50% to 47%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$100 of YES from 49% to 50%
6 months ago
A trader sold M$471 of YES from 52% to 49%
6 months ago
A trader sold M$1,427 of YES from 60% to 52%
6 months ago
A trader sold M$456 of NO from 57% to 60%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$10 of NO at 57%
6 months ago
A trader sold M$48 of YES at 57%
6 months ago
A trader sold M$49 of YES at 57%
6 months ago
A trader sold M$82 of YES from 58% to 57%
6 months ago
A trader sold M$43 of YES at 58%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$450 of NO from 61% to 58%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$20 of NO at 61%
6 months ago
A trader sold M$121 of YES from 62% to 61%
6 months ago
A trader sold M$118 of YES at 62%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$100 of NO from 63% to 62%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$3 of YES at 63%
6 months ago
A trader sold M$2 of YES at 63%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$2 of YES at 63%
6 months ago
A trader sold M$1 of YES at 63%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$1 of YES at 63%
6 months ago
A trader sold M$20 of YES at 63%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$20 of YES at 63%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$20 of YES at 63%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$30 of YES at 63%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$84 of NO at 63%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$30 of YES at 63%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$100 of YES at 63%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$370 of NO from 66% to 63%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$1,500 of YES from 59% to 66%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$20 of YES from 58% to 59%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$20 of NO from 59% to 58%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$500 of YES from 56% to 59%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$100 of NO from 57% to 56%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$5 of NO at 57%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$20 of NO at 57%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$508 of NO from 61% to 57%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$100 of YES from 60% to 61%
6 months ago
A trader sold M$96 of YES from 61% to 60%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$20 of NO at 61%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$88 of YES at 61%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$87 of YES from 60% to 61%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$47 of NO at 60%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$500 of YES from 57% to 60%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$15 of YES at 57%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$200 of YES from 56% to 57%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$200 of YES from 55% to 56%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$42 of YES from 54% to 55%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$852 of NO from 62% to 54%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$86 of YES at 62%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$100 of YES from 61% to 62%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$450 of YES from 58% to 61%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$100 of NO from 59% to 58%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$1 of YES at 59%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$500 of YES from 55% to 59%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$100 of NO from 56% to 55%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$651 of NO from 64% to 56%
6 months ago
A trader sold M$107 of YES at 64%
6 months ago
A trader sold M$116 of YES from 65% to 64%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$5 of NO at 65%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$100 of YES at 65%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$111 of YES from 64% to 65%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$50 of YES from 63% to 64%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$100 of NO from 65% to 63%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$500 of YES from 61% to 65%
6 months ago
A trader sold M$343 of NO from 57% to 61%
6 months ago
A trader sold M$234 of NO from 54% to 57%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$150 of NO from 56% to 54%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$100 of YES from 55% to 56%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$40 of YES at 55%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$41 of YES from 54% to 55%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$10 of NO at 54%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$500 of YES from 49% to 54%
6 months ago
A trader sold M$301 of NO from 46% to 49%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$150 of YES from 45% to 46%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$100 of YES from 43% to 45%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$50 of YES at 43%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$100 of NO from 44% to 43%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$50 of YES from 43% to 44%
6 months ago
A trader sold M$97 of YES from 44% to 43%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$50 of YES at 44%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$95 of YES from 43% to 44%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$100 of NO at 43%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$67 of YES at 43%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$100 of YES from 41% to 43%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$800 of NO from 50% to 41%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$50 of NO at 50%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$393 of NO from 56% to 50%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$10 of YES at 56%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$2 of YES at 56%
6 months ago
A trader sold M$42 of YES at 56%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$614 of YES from 48% to 56%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$300 of YES from 44% to 48%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$100 of NO from 45% to 44%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$10 of YES at 45%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$1 of NO at 45%
6 months ago
A trader sold M$14 of YES at 45%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$50 of NO from 46% to 45%
6 months ago
A trader sold M$39 of YES at 46%
6 months ago
A trader sold M$50 of NO at 46%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$50 of NO at 46%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$50 of NO from 47% to 46%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$100 of YES from 45% to 47%
6 months ago
A trader sold M$676 of YES from 55% to 45%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$45 of YES at 55%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$100 of NO from 56% to 55%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$20 of YES at 56%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$20 of NO at 56%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$100 of YES from 55% to 56%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$24 of YES at 55%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$42 of YES from 54% to 55%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$48 of YES from 53% to 54%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$500 of NO from 62% to 53%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$33 of YES at 62%
6 months ago
A trader sold M$1,000 of NO from 46% to 62%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$1,000 of NO from 62% to 46%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$100 of YES from 60% to 62%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$44 of YES at 60%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$50 of YES from 59% to 60%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$100 of NO from 61% to 59%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$152 of NO from 64% to 61%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$250 of YES from 61% to 64%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$20 of NO from 62% to 61%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$20 of NO at 62%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$50 of YES from 61% to 62%
6 months ago
A trader sold M$108 of YES from 63% to 61%
6 months ago
A trader sold M$179 of YES from 65% to 63%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$20 of YES at 65%
6 months ago
A trader sold M$24 of YES at 65%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$200 of NO from 70% to 65%
6 months ago
A trader sold M$136 of YES from 71% to 70%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$54 of YES at 71%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$10 of NO at 71%
6 months ago
A trader sold M$11 of YES at 71%
6 months ago
A trader sold M$32 of YES from 72% to 71%
6 months ago
A trader sold M$1 of YES at 72%
6 months ago
A trader sold M$197 of YES from 73% to 72%
6 months ago
A trader sold M$36 of YES from 74% to 73%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$100 of YES from 73% to 74%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$100 of YES from 72% to 73%
6 months ago
A trader sold M$133 of NO from 69% to 72%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$50 of YES from 68% to 69%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$1,000 of YES from 54% to 68%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$100 of YES from 52% to 54%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$80 of NO from 53% to 52%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$100 of YES from 51% to 53%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$5 of YES at 51%
6 months ago
A trader sold M$16 of YES from 52% to 51%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$500 of NO from 65% to 52%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$100 of YES from 63% to 65%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$300 of NO from 74% to 63%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$50 of YES from 73% to 74%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$50 of YES from 72% to 73%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$200 of NO from 81% to 72%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$50 of YES at 81%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$100 of NO from 86% to 81%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$5 of NO at 86%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$1 of NO at 86%
6 months ago
A trader sold M$37 of YES from 87% to 86%
6 months ago
A trader sold M$7 of NO from 86% to 87%
6 months ago
A trader sold M$9 of NO at 86%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$235 of YES from 83% to 86%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$30 of YES at 83%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$465 of YES from 76% to 83%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$770 of YES from 51% to 76%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$152 of YES from 41% to 51%
6 months ago
A trader sold M$7 of NO at 41%
6 months ago
A trader sold M$430 of YES from 63% to 41%
6 months ago
A trader sold M$444 of YES from 75% to 63%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$5 of NO at 75%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$10 of NO from 76% to 75%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$100 of NO from 82% to 76%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$20 of NO from 84% to 82%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$20 of YES at 84%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$50 of YES from 83% to 84%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$50 of YES from 82% to 83%
6 months ago
A trader sold M$20 of NO from 81% to 82%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$20 of NO from 82% to 81%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$50 of YES from 81% to 82%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$50 of YES from 80% to 81%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$1 of NO at 80%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$462 of YES from 68% to 80%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$33 of YES from 67% to 68%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$25 of YES from 66% to 67%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$10 of YES from 65% to 66%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$100 of NO from 74% to 65%
6 months ago
A trader sold M$1 of NO at 74%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$12 of YES at 74%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$100 of YES from 70% to 74%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$440 of YES from 36% to 70%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$20 of NO from 38% to 36%
6 months ago
A trader sold M$5 of NO from 37% to 38%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$20 of YES from 35% to 37%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$25 of NO from 36% to 35%
6 months ago
A trader sold M$30 of YES from 41% to 36%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$30 of YES from 36% to 41%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$100 of NO from 46% to 36%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$100 of YES from 30% to 46%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$20 of YES from 25% to 30%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$1 of YES at 25%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$82 of YES from 3% to 25%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$400 of NO from 31% to 3%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$20 of YES from 14% to 31%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$50 of NO from 27% to 14%
6 months ago
A trader sold M$13 of YES from 40% to 27%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$5 of NO from 43% to 40%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$10 of NO from 51% to 43%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$15 of YES from 36% to 51%
6 months ago
A trader sold M$19 of NO from 26% to 36%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$10 of YES from 13% to 26%
6 months ago
A trader sold M$10 of NO from 11% to 13%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$10 of NO from 13% to 11%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$30 of NO from 24% to 13%
6 months ago
A trader sold M$2 of NO from 22% to 24%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$20 of NO from 36% to 22%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$2 of NO from 38% to 36%
6 months ago
A trader sold M$10 of NO from 29% to 38%
6 months ago
A trader sold M$1 of YES from 32% to 29%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$10 of NO from 41% to 32%
6 months ago
A trader sold M$16 of YES from 61% to 41%
6 months ago
A trader sold M$188 of NO from 6% to 61%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$5 of YES from 3% to 6%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$200 of NO from 41% to 3%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$4 of NO from 46% to 41%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$15 of YES from 12% to 46%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$1 of YES from 9% to 12%
6 months ago
A trader sold M$10 of YES from 36% to 9%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$10 of YES from 9% to 36%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$3 of NO from 10% to 9%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$5 of YES at 10%
6 months ago
A trader bought M$45 of NO at 10%
6 months ago
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