Will Russia control Kyiv as of April 2, 2022?
Resolved
NO
Apr 3
M$178,597 bet

💬 Proven correct

TravisFergason
Travis Fergason bought M$852 of NO
let's go!!!
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Travis Fergason made M$453!
PeterBerggren
Peter Berggren bought M$50 of NO
Metaculus predicts 2.1%.
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ArminVogel
Armin Vogel bought M$1,000 of NO
The Russians seem to be really struggling.
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ConnerGagliano
Conner Gagliano bought M$370 of NO
This seems relatively high given that US officials have stated that US senators were briefed that it will take at least another week before Kyiv is fully encircled and around another 30 days until Kyiv is seized. This is along with news that those Russian columns trying to encircle Kyiv are literally running out of gas and Ukraine is bombing the supply convoys with Bayraktars.
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TravisFergason
Travis Fergason bought M$852 of NO
let's go!!!
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PatrickDelaney
Russia threatening nuclear attack is basically admitting that they lost.
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MiroFurtado
Miro Furtado bought M$80 of NO
My guess is that the resolve conditions of this market will be biased towards "no" (reluctance to acknowledge what is effective control b/c Russia is a Western adversary) but the reality on the ground will soon be a likely "yes."
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colorednoise
colorednoise bought M$200 of NO
I don't see how this is so high, I'd say 20% makes sense. I'd invest more but I want to bet on other things as well.
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JamesGrugett
James bought M$100 of NO
This war may be costly for Russia if Ukraine is putting up a fight. I could imagine Russia making peace and backing out, or fighting harder for certain territories closer to Russia instead of Kyiv.
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hagi
hagi sold M$37 of YES
It really depends on what "control Kiev" means. If the Ukranian Government does surrender before that and become a Russian puppet state, does this count?
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CharlesVorbach
Charles Vorbach bought M$100 of NO
I'm closer to 50% on this one.
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