Will Russia control Kyiv as of April 2, 2022?
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Metaculus predicts 14%.
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9939/kyiv-to-fall-to-russian-forces-by-april-2022/
This seems significant to me.
https://twitter.com/KofmanMichael/status/1499967950975115269
This seems relatively high given that US officials have stated that US senators were briefed that it will take at least another week before Kyiv is fully encircled and around another 30 days until Kyiv is seized. This is along with news that those Russian columns trying to encircle Kyiv are literally running out of gas and Ukraine is bombing the supply convoys with Bayraktars.
Almost arbitrage with https://manifold.markets/CharlesVorbach/will-russia-enter-kiev-by-march-31s