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Will Ukraine control Mariupol on Jan 1st 2029?

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Metaculus predicts 2.1%.

Metaculus predicts 14%. https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9939/kyiv-to-fall-to-russian-forces-by-april-2022/

Aligning with https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9939/kyiv-to-fall-to-russian-forces-by-april-2022/

This seems significant to me. https://twitter.com/KofmanMichael/status/1499967950975115269

The Russians seem to be really struggling.

This seems relatively high given that US officials have stated that US senators were briefed that it will take at least another week before Kyiv is fully encircled and around another 30 days until Kyiv is seized. This is along with news that those Russian columns trying to encircle Kyiv are literally running out of gas and Ukraine is bombing the supply convoys with Bayraktars.

let's go!!!

Russia threatening nuclear attack is basically admitting that they lost.

My guess is that the resolve conditions of this market will be biased towards "no" (reluctance to acknowledge what is effective control b/c Russia is a Western adversary) but the reality on the ground will soon be a likely "yes."

I don't see how this is so high, I'd say 20% makes sense. I'd invest more but I want to bet on other things as well.

This war may be costly for Russia if Ukraine is putting up a fight. I could imagine Russia making peace and backing out, or fighting harder for certain territories closer to Russia instead of Kyiv.

It really depends on what "control Kiev" means. If the Ukranian Government does surrender before that and become a Russian puppet state, does this count?

I'm closer to 50% on this one.

Almost arbitrage with https://manifold.markets/CharlesVorbach/will-russia-enter-kiev-by-march-31s

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Will Ukraine control Mariupol on Jan 1st 2029?

39% chance

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