Will we have conclusive evidence by 2030 that life on Earth has an extraterrestrial origin?
Basic
4
Ṁ194
2030
18%
chance

Resolves as YES if conclusive evidence emerges that life on Earth originated elsewhere.

Our last universal common ancestor (LUCA) was apparently already highly advanced only millions of years after the formation of our planet (https://www.nature.com/articles/s41559-024-02461-1). By 4.2 billion years ago, it was likely comparable to modern bacteria and archaea, possessing an immune system for fighting viruses, ribosomes for synthesizing an arsenal of about 2,600 proteins, a phospholipid membrane, and ATP synthase. I find it challenging to understand how such complexity could have developed so rapidly.

This scenario makes sense if LUCA had already been evolving for a few billion years before arriving on Earth. However, the paper above does not provide conclusive evidence. It might be overestimating some of LUCA's capabilities, or there may be an undiscovered mechanism that significantly accelerated LUCA's development.

Conclusive evidence could, for example, take the form of a yet unsequenced organism (found on Earth or elsewhere in our solar system) whose genetic analysis suggests life is older than 4.6 billion years.

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00
© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules