Will Ukraine acquire nuclear weapons by the end of 2028, depending on the outcome of the U.S. presidential election?
Plus
14
Ṁ14712029
8%
Trump wins, Ukraine acquires nuclear weapons.
43%
Trump wins, Ukraine does not acquire nuclear weapons.
8%
Trump loses, Ukraine acquires nuclear weapons.
41%
Trump loses, Ukraine does not acquire nuclear weapons.
Ukraine inherited substantial nuclear expertise and infrastructure from the Soviet era, including nuclear reactors and scientific knowledge. Ukraine renounced nuclear weapons in 1994 under the Budapest Memorandum and dismantled its arsenal, but it retains civilian nuclear power capabilities and access to technical expertise.
If credible evidence emerges after the election that Ukraine possesses nuclear weapons, this market will resolve accordingly. It will be resolved as N/A if the election remains undecided.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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