Will Russia invade Moldova before May 2022?
Politics•Ukraine-Russia war
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resolved Mar 1
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This market resolves to 'Yes' if media consensus is that Russian troops have entered Moldova before the 1st of May, 2022, as decided by me.
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sold Ṁ0 of YES
Okay, but Russian troops are already in Transnistria and both Russia and Moldova acknowledge this. They also are not on request of the Moldovan government either. Would this question resolve yes for a further incursion or is the current one enough? https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russian-forces-hold-military-drills-breakaway-statelet-near-ukraine-2022-02-01/
sold Ṁ1 of YES
And hence entering Transnistria would represent a significant shift in Russian foreign policy with regards to Moldova.
bought Ṁ1 of YES
Let's include Transnistria because even Russia doesn't officially recognise Transnistria.
bought Ṁ1 of YES
Does this include the breakaway province of Transnistria?
bought Ṁ10 of YES
Putin showing every sign of wanting to escalate

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