This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Department of Defense/War or CENTCOM publicly and officially announces the reimposition of a naval blockade on Iran, or on ships traveling to or from Iranian ports, or on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz, between market creation and July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The announcement need not specify the full scope, duration, or enforcement parameters of the blockade. An announcement of a partial or targeted blockade qualifies, including one limited to specific vessel categories, port areas, or Iranian coastal zones.

A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the United States government’s present implementation of a blockade or definitive decision to implement a blockade.