This market resolves based on the change in the upper bound of the target federal funds rate from its level immediately before the July 2026 FOMC meeting (July 28-29, 2026).

The outcome is determined by the net basis-point change announced in the official July FOMC statement.

If the Fed changes the rate by an amount not matching a displayed option, the change will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps for resolution (e.g., a 12.5 bps move is treated as 25 bps).

Resolution Sources:

• The official FOMC statement for the July 2026 meeting:

  https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm

• The Federal Reserve’s published target rate level and changes:

  https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm

This market may resolve as soon as the July FOMC statement is released.

If no statement is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, the market resolves “No change.”

• Update 2026-07-09 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): A rate change of less than 12.5 bps (e.g., 5 bps) will resolve as No Change, not rounded up to 25 bps. Only changes ≥ 12.5 bps will round up to 25 bps.