When will OpenAI's Sora be publicly available?
➕
Plus
160
Ṁ60k
Feb 23
0.1%
February 2024
0.9%
March 2024
0.9%
April 2024
0.8%
May 2024
0.7%
June 2024
0.8%
July 2024
1.4%
August 2024
3%
September 2024
3%
October 2024
8%
November 2024
9%
December 2024
6%
January 2025
5%
February 2025
4%
March-April 2025
5%
May-June 2025
4%
July-August 2025
5%
September-October 2025
5%
November-December 2025
12%
Never (publicly confirmed)
25%
Other

Still counts if it's behind a paywall, but not if there's a waitlist

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Can we resolve Feb, Mar, and Apr to NO?

bought Ṁ150 April 2024 NO

bumping this, is there a reason why the month that past are not already resolved to NO?

Yes, the reason is that linked multiple choice markets cannot resolve some options early. we're going to have to wait for sora to be available before any options can resolve

oh i see

bought Ṁ5 Other YES

If they announce it will never be publicly available, does this resolve to Other? @CelebratedWhale

Do all get resolved to yes ahead of the time of release? Like if it is released in July, would december resolve YES?

@Cadberry No, it resolves to the time it first becomes publicly available

Arbitrage opportunity:

bought Ṁ100 Other YES

I do not think there is enough GPU capabilities to run it in production at scale. It will take over a year before it is released imho.

bought Ṁ100 Other YES

There is no chance this releases before the US election

  1. GIANT election interference risk. Most people aren't even 'aware' that AI can do art or voices yet, and most haven't even used ChatGPT yet. Imagine SORA being unleashed.

  2. Giant computation demand. SORA looks extremely intensive to run, so will eat up GPUs for GPT-5 training.

If you have to request access and it's not granted automatically it doesn't count?

@nikstar Correct

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