Resolution criteria

This market resolves to "Yes" if, by January 1, 2035, artificial intelligence (AI) technologies have entirely replaced human indie game developers in the creation of new indie games. "Entirely replaced" means that AI autonomously handles all aspects of game development—including design, programming, art, music, and narrative—without human intervention. Verification will be based on industry reports, academic studies, and authoritative news sources confirming the complete automation of indie game development by AI. If no such evidence is available by the resolution date, the market resolves to "No."

Background

AI has increasingly been integrated into game development, assisting with tasks like procedural content generation, NPC behavior, and asset creation. While some studios have adopted AI to enhance efficiency, concerns persist about its impact on creativity and employment. Notably, reports indicate instances where AI tools have been used to replace human roles in game development, leading to layoffs. (wired.com)

Considerations

Despite advancements, AI currently lacks the nuanced understanding of human emotions, cultural contexts, and creative intuition essential for crafting engaging and original game experiences. The future trajectory of AI in game development remains uncertain, with debates ongoing about its potential to fully replicate the depth and creativity brought by human developers.