Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if, by December 31, 2030, there is clear evidence that AI has substantially displaced human workers across multiple sectors of the economy—meaning AI systems have permanently replaced significant portions of jobs (not merely augmented them) in at least three major industries. Resolution NO if AI primarily augments rather than replaces work, or if job displacement remains limited to isolated sectors.

For verification, refer to: Bureau of Labor Statistics employment data, World Economic Forum Future of Jobs reports, and major employment surveys from McKinsey or Goldman Sachs.

Background

AI-driven robotics are projected to replace approximately 2 million manufacturing workers by 2026, and by 2030, 30% of current U.S. jobs could be fully automated, while 60% will see significant task-level changes due to AI integration. However, the picture is more complex than headlines suggest. At least 50% of tasks are automated in 15.1% of U.S. employment (about 23.2 million jobs), but 63.3% of all jobs include nontechnical barriers that would prevent complete automation displacement. There is very little evidence of artificial intelligence taking away jobs on a large scale to date, and correlation between AI exposure and projections of job growth or decline over the next decade remains low.

READ: I MEAN IF A JOB TURNS AI