On January 5th, the Salt Lake Tribune published a series of predictions regarding The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints (aka the Mormon Church), stemming from data scientist Stephen Cranney. Like a good predictor, Cranney even provided exact percentages! Let's see whether Manifold agrees.

One of these predictions was the following:

A “significant” policy change, addressed in at least two General Conference talks, will occur.

"Cranney sees that as a 50-50 prospect. “While President [Russell] Nelson’s tenure has had a lot of [policy changes],” he states, “they seem to have tapered off recently."

This market preferably resolves per reporting from the Salt Lake Tribune, though I reserve the right to resolve independently as necessary.