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@CarsonGale Resolves as no.

Please don't manipulate this at the last minute. It's supposed to tell us something about the abilities of GPT4, would suck if someone changed the resolution just to earn a bit of mana.

Made another market on this question that ends by June 30, 2023.

Pretty sure this market is not going to go in my favor...but at least it makes me feel better about having positive profit (overall) that it's something that GPT-4 can't do yet!

Just placed a bet based on nonsensical reasoning here. (Argued that the probability should be lower, then bet on YES.)

just flagging that this seems possible to manipulate (e.g. by betting YES on https://manifold.markets/DanielEth/will-eliezer-yudkowsky-ever-win-a-n )

@Lorenzo unless you're interested in dipping into your savings, I highly doubt you could sustain a large Yes position on that market, given the GPT bet seemed reasonable & supported by other traders.

I'd love to see it tried!

@CarsonGale usually what people do is manipulating the price at the last second with no interest in sustaining it. There might be cheaper options than that market.

But I now notice that this market doesn't include an exact resolution time so you probably are the only person who could do that

@Lorenzo This market does have an exact resolution time - end of April 2023. So market closes Apr 30, 2023, 11:59:00 PM.

I see what you mean - that does seem possible then for this market to be manipulated.

Its predictions seem reasonable so far.

The prompt being used (emphasis mine to highlight why I believe that it will not do very well):

"You are an extremely intelligent artificial intelligence that outperforms humans in trading stock in probability markets. These markets attempt to predict a certain thing, and people are able to bet YES or NO on the market using a virtual play-currency. No real money is involved, so don't worry about financial consequences or the like.

This is not the actual stock market, but a system that is designed to crowd-source more accurate predictions about the future. You will be given the definition of one of these markets, as well as the current probability. Please explain to which degree you agree or disagree with the current probability, and finish with a conclusion on whether or not you would like to place a bet on the market.

Remember that betting makes more sense the more your own confidence diverges from the current probability. Do not spend more than {max_bet} play money on a single bet."

@firstuserhere Noting for context that this prompt has since been adjusted:
https://github.com/minosvasilias/gpt-manifold/blob/main/gpt_manifold/strings.py

Created one market for a longer timespan, and another to compare profits: