Will Manifold be mentioned in the NYT or the WSJ by end of 2025?
62
415
1.2K
resolved Aug 5
Resolved
YES

NYT = New York Times

WSJ = Wall Street Journal

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Yeah, a podcast is not the "be mentioned in the NYT" anyone considers correct...

predicted YES

I agree this market should now resolve positively given the recent podcast.

Please feel free to provide feedback if you disagree with this resolution decision and would like to appeal.

bought Ṁ200 of YES

Decent chance Manifold becomes the go to barometer for room temperature superconducting among journalists who don’t have the time or intelligence to figure it out for themselves. This is probably the first truly viral moment.

I think what I learned is that there should be a market automatically created for every new bill proposed and in congress, every trade agreement needing ratification, every nominee up for confirmation. As many markets that can be automated and used as an source of knowledge about complex topics. I think sorting by trustworthy likes or using sentiment analysis to rise best comments would also be smart. Or like if we have a resident/eminent material scientist give them an expert badge in that subject and pay them mana to answer questions.

For example, @IsaacKohane is literally one of the top 5 biomedical informatics experts in the world, so manifold should give Dr Kohane an expert badge and ask him very nicely to settle complicated disputes on markets like /RatUziCat/is-the-pcnatargeting-cancer-drug-pa

While you guys are at it, give me a Manifold UX Expert Badge and do a user interview with me!!!

@DavidChee @SG @JamesGrugett @ian

bought Ṁ20 of YES

I think this should resolve YES now. Unlike Jack's market, this didn't say it had to be an article, so a podcast should count.

bought Ṁ60 of YES

@JosephNoonan Are you unable to bet on this market? I cannot from any device.

bought Ṁ1 of YES

Looks like your bets just went through.

bought Ṁ70 of YES

@Joshua Weird. Wouldn’t show me my limit orders for like 15 minutes too.

bought Ṁ100 of YES

@BTE Yeah, I can still bet on it

bought Ṁ1,000 of YES

@BTE I was contemplating whether I should bet a lot or only a small amount to hedge against the possibility that the creator resolves it in a weird way, but I decided to bet more since it seems like the answer is unambiguously YES to me.

predicted NO

Manifold was mentioned on Friday's edition of the New York Times podcast Hard Fork. 12-ish minutes in.

Does a podcast count?

Already made the FT so it's a possibility.

predicted YES

@BTE I can't find this after googling - any chance you could share the link or point me in the right direction for what to search for?

bought Ṁ10 of YES

@CarsonGale It was about the SBF venture investment spreadsheet. Manifold was one of the investments featured. It may have been in the NYT also.

predicted YES

@BTE Thanks! Wow that's some really high-quality media coverage (face palm)