Background

On February 19, 2025, President Donald Trump issued an executive order aiming to eliminate the Presidio Trust, the agency responsible for managing San Francisco’s Presidio National Park. If enforced, this could lead to funding cuts, administrative restructuring, or changes to land use policies, potentially affecting residents who live in the Presidio.

Since Carson lives in the Presidio of San Francisco, potential impacts include lease agreement changes, rent increases, declining property management services, or shifts in local housing policies stemming from the dissolution of the Presidio Trust.

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve YES if, by December 31, 2025, Carson experiences a material change in their living situation that can be reasonably attributed (at least in part) to the executive order on the Presidio Trust. This includes:

• Being forced to move due to policy changes, lease terminations, or administrative decisions directly tied to the dissolution of the Trust.

• A rent increase of more than 20% above what would have otherwise been expected under normal market conditions, if linked to Trust-related disruptions.

• A major decline in property management services (e.g., critical maintenance issues going unresolved for an extended period due to administrative or funding disruptions).

• New restrictions, taxes, or fees imposed on Presidio residents as a result of governance changes.

• Any other significant disruption to Carson’s housing situation directly tied to the executive order's impact on the Presidio Trust.

This market will resolve NO if:

• Carson’s housing situation remains unchanged by the end of 2025.

• Any changes Carson experiences are unrelated to the executive order’s effects (e.g., moving for personal reasons or job-related relocation).

• While the executive order may cause administrative or funding uncertainty, it does not result in a direct, material impact on Carson’s ability to remain in their current residence or on their housing costs/quality of life.

• Any rent increases do not exceed 20% or are in line with normal market trends.

Considerations

• Presidio Lease Agreements: If the Presidio Trust dissolves, who will assume responsibility for lease management? Could new landlords or agencies alter rental agreements?

• Property Services & Maintenance: Will funding cuts lead to worse upkeep, fewer services, or increased tenant responsibilities?

• Legal & Political Challenges: Could lawsuits delay or block the dissolution, keeping housing conditions stable?

• Market & Economic Impact: If uncertainty around the Presidio’s future affects property values or rental demand, how might that influence Carson’s lease terms?

Traders should assess how likely it is that the executive order’s effects on the Presidio Trust will lead to a meaningful change in Carson’s living situation, particularly in terms of rent or lease conditions.